I have been looking at lots of models over the past 2 days trying to get a better handle on the details for the storms this week. The biggest change is the slow the onset of snow in the Tahoe Basin and Truckee until Tuesday night.
Because of the angle of the jetstream as the trough digs down off the coast the winds will be out of the South and Southwest. That will keep the precip to our North near Shasta and Lassen, and along the Western crest of Tahoe until the cold front gets closer later on Tuesday.
Then the real show starts as the cold front approaches Tuesday night. Heavy snow will move in and will last through the day on Wednesday. By Wednesday night we should have around 12-18 inches on the ground in the Village and 18-24 inches above 7000 ft.
Snow showers will continue Wednesday night and Thursday with snow ratios of 20:1 above 7000 ft. So even though the liquid amounts will be light the snow will pile up fast in the bands of snow showers. Depending on where the heaviest snow bands go we could see several more inches.
The GFS is the outlier showing things clearing out for President's weekend. The other models show another wave of snow for Friday and Saturday. Depening on whether this storm comes to our South or just over us we could see anything from a dusting up to another foot of snow. Hopefully the models can come into some sort of agreement with the track of the storm today or tomorrow. Either way it will be cold with highs in the teens and 20's into President's weekend. Total snowfall by Saturday could be up to 2 feet in the Village and 3 feet on top.
Models are still all over the place for week 2. It looks as if the ridge out in the Pacific will be a little further East towards the Gulf of Alaska. This would continue to drive cold air into the area and bring light-moderate sized storms down the coast. Because they would not have the over water trajectory like this weeks storm they would have lighter snow amounts, but with the really cold air the snow could still pile up.
Stay tuned as we fine tune the snow amounts and details for this week. BA