Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Barely Getting Started......

Northstar picked up 13 inches as of 5 a.m. this morning and you can add several more inches to that by the time we open. The heaviest snow will fall this morning, but it will snow into the weekend with several more feet still on tap.

The cold front is pushing through this morning which will trigger the heavy snowfall and increasing snow ratios. By this evening I am expecting that the snow totals are double what we woke up to this morning. Tonight the snow showers will become much lighter, but with 20-30:1 snow ratios whatever falls will pile up quickly. Snow projections from yesterday still look to be on track by tomorrow morning with 1.5-2.5 feet in the Village and 2-3 feet on the mountain.

Tomorrow we start with light snow showers during the day and then another wave of heavier snow rotates in tomorrow night. The steadier snow should last into the day on Friday. Looking for another 3-6 inches during the day tomorrow in the Village and 4-8 inches on the mountain. Then we should pick up another 12-18 inches in the Village and 1-2 feet on the mountain Thursday night and Friday.

For Saturday and Sunday another wave of moisture rotates in but it looks like the bulk of the moisture will stay to our South so we will only see light snow showers. We could pick up a few to several more inches depening on the exact track. By Sunday morning I am expecting 5 day storm totals of 3-4 feet in the Village and 4-6 feet on the mountain.

The temps stay cold with highs in the 20's right through the weekend and into next week as this pattern of cold and storms dropping from the North continues. After a break on Sunday and President's Day, the trend is to bring another cold storm down the coast. The past few model runs have the storm coming down the coast a little further West meaning the heaviest precip stays just to our West. That could easily change and if the storm tracks closer to the coast that could mean a lot more snow. For right now it looks like at least several inches of snow Tuesday and Wednesday.

The ridge moves back a little in the North Pacific to around 160w where it is the beginning of this week. That should allow the storms to pick up a bit more moisture off the Pacific. As of right now it appears that we may see a similar pattern the last weekend of the month and into the first week of March as we are seeing this week.

So we still have quite a bit of winter to deal with the next few weeks. I still do not see anything long-term that would close the storm door. Isn't this fun? BA

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