A quick update here this morning on the long-range, and I think you'll like it. Models are trending further West with the ridging week 2 and then North week 3. They have the ridge all the way out around 160-170w. The first storm should arrive sometime around the 12th-14th.
This pattern shift will start now and will go through a transition that will take about a week. The ridge will expand North brining mild weather this weekend and then start moving West the beginning of next week. This will allow some colder air to drop down and for those in Utah you may get some snow dropping down to our East. Then a decent sized low moves into the Gulf of Alaska replacing the ridge next weekend and then begins to send storms into CA.
We are still 7-10 days away, but consistency is improving with the possibility that we have a week straight of storms the 14th-21st. Then if the ridge does shift a little further North towards the Aleutians we could see undercutting of the jetstream and a second week of snowfall the 4th week of February.
I am going to count down the 3 snowstorms targeting the East Coast over the next week because after the 3rd snowstorm they get the pattern is going to flip. So it will be 3 (Sunday), 2 (Tuesday), 1 (Thursday). Interestingly the storm on Thursday could be quite impressive, some are already alluding to the blizzard of the century.
It is also snowing again in Dallas today and but the sign for us that winter has finally arrive will be when Dallas is at 80 degrees and Philadelphia is at 70 degrees the second half of February. It's still too early to make any bold predictions but the ingredients are there for us to get quite a lot of snow the second half of the month. Stay tuned.......BA