It has been a few days since I have posted on the longer term. The issue I am dealing with is that I believe the weather will do one thing and the models are saying something different. It is normally bad for us when the NAO is negative and locks the cold in over the East pumping a ridge over the West. This has been the case most of the winter but we have had blocking form near Alaska that has combined with a low in the Gulf of Alaska and pushed the jetstream South and into the West Coast. Right now it's clear that this week will be quiet and snow free. What I am looking at is the following week and what will happen with the ridge in the Pacific. We need a blocking ridge to form in just the right spot again near the Aleutian Islands or just South. Right Now the models are trying to put the ridge near there but no low pressure South and East of it to form a Rex Block and send the jetstream underneath into the West Coast. The potential is there that we don't see a big storm for at least 2 weeks.
We could see some light snow next weekend but the cold front doesn't look like it will come far enough West down the coast to pick up any moisture from the ocean and it will be fairly dry.
The good news in all of that is that we will not see any unseasonably warm weather while it's quiet. With the AO negative the Arctic air is being displaced Southward into the U.S. and it won't be long before that cold air will come West. After temps in the 30's this week it could become quite cold next weekend and the following week. If we could get the jetstream to come through from the Pacific it would be the perfect setup for big snow, but right now the chances are about 50/50. The trough will shift this month to the West with the La Nina signal so strong. Until then it may get boring weather wise around here for a little while. Sit tight we still have a whole winter ahead of us. BA