Tuesday, January 11, 2011

January Thaw....

Light precip is moving into the area this morning. We could see 2-4 inches of light snow by tomorrow. Then we could see another period of light snow in Thursday as a storm moves by to our North.

The storm track will be into Washington and Oregon into the weekend and we will be on the Southern fringe. That means we could see clouds and even some light snow again Sunday into Monday with mild temps up into the 40's.

If we just look at the model forecasts we may have another 2 weeks without any significant snow. But the models are not paying attention to the MJO which is strengthening and should begin to move into the Western Pacific over the next couple of days. When the MJO is strong enough and far enough East into the Western Pacific it can briefly bring similar affects as El Nino with an enhanced jetstream into the CA coast.

The first affect should be to pull the ridge back away from the coast next week which should allow storms to make it into CA again. That is why I don't believe the complete dry forecast for next week. Then the last week of January and possibly into February we should see a period of really strong storms. I am still not backing off the my thought that we could still hit the seasonal averages at some resorts before the end of the month. Stay tuned....BA

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