The weather pattern remains complicated, but interesting. Temps today are in the 40's ahead of a mild system. The cold front and precip should finally push into the area tomorrow night into Friday. Due to the daytime temps above freezing I would not expect much accumulation during the day in the Village. On the mountain we should see around 3-6 inches of snow.
The cut-off low is trending a bit further North as it comes in over the weekend. We should see periods of snow showers throughout the weekend. The daytime temps again should limit the snow accumulations in the Village. It is hard to make snowfall predictions because I don't how much will fall at night, but a better chance for a few inches overnight. Above mid-mountain another 4-8 inches could accumulate over the weekend. By Monday there could be over a foot of new snow on top of the mountain, although it will take 3 days to accumulate.
Next week the pattern looks to stay active. Looks like we could see a small storm on Tuesday-Wednesday. The end of next week into the following week a strong low pressure sets up in the Northeast Pacific. A warm moist jetstream will take aim at the West Coast with several storms. The question is where the ridge sets up in the Central Pacific which affects where it sets up to our South. Model solutions right now are several different options. If the ridge in the Pacific is too far West a ridge could build over Southern CA and keep the storms just to our North for 2 weeks. If the ridge is more to the East in the Pacific then the ridge to our South would also be flatter and Northern CA gets the hose for 2 weeks. The Latest GFS run has the storms to our North the end of next week and then the storm track comes down our way in the following week.
Either way I think the teleconnections and the the La Nina signal take over towards the middle of December and beyond. If we don't get the direct hit next week I think the pattern will eventually shift South through the month and we will get our storms. It may be better to wait because the storms the end of next week associated with the jet would be warm storms with the potential for lower elevation rain. BA