Monday, December 20, 2010

Day 4....

Northstar picked up another 2 ft. in the past 24 hours bringing the 3 day total at the summit to 73 inches, or better put just over 6 feet! Around 4 feet has fallen at the base lodge and although it was back and forth rain-snow in the Village they picked up over 2 feet combined through the weekend.

The moisture plume has moved just to our South and we are on the Northern fringe today. That will keep the heaviest precip to our South today. Stronger waves will rotate through during the day. Snowfall totals today should be in the 3-6 inch range in the Village with 6-12 inches above the base lodge. Could be more depending on where the heaviest cells come through.

Light intermittent snow showers will continue tonight through Tuesday but wouldn't be surprised to see the sun on Tuesday. The next storm moves in on Wednesday. The ridge to our East is not pushing that far East and will try to split the storm on Wednesday. That would push the heaviest precip to our South. Right now it looks as if we will get around 6-12 inches in the Village with 12-18 inches above the base lodge. That is much less than thought last week as the jetstream will stay to our South and the storm will have a negative tilt which lowers the precip that makes it over the crest.

We clear out Thursday-Saturday before the next storm arrives on Sunday. This storm will have the same issues with the negative tilt and the ridge to the East trying to split it. It will be a cold storm and current guestimates are that we will get in the 1-2 ft. range.

The ridge then potentially shifts in the Pacific by the end of the month to around 150w North of Hawaii. If it sets up there then we are on the cold side of the trough and storms will come in from the North every couple of days. Models have been pretty consistent on this trend except for the run of the GFS this morning that has the ridge further West in the Pacific and we are on the warm moist side of the trough. Either way it looks to continue to be stormy going in to the New Year. Stay tuned.........BA

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