Monday, December 13, 2010

Break It Down......

Over the weekend my posts weren't very detailed. I do that when I have stated that a big pattern change or storm series is coming and nothing changes. I spend the time studying the patterns and computer models to try and pinpoint the details. When things don't change like they didn't all weekend the confidence grows and it's time to break down the details and talk snow amounts, since I know that is all you care about anyway.

First storm tomorrow is going to slap us back to reality as it returns winter temps and snow. Liquid amounts looked light in the .5-.75 inch range all weekend until this morning. Then the Euro and NAM decided to slow the storm down and add an inch of liquid to the forecast. I would just double the snow totals except for the fact that the GFS, one of the main models, is still showing the lighter amounts. Will have to watch today to see, it usually doesn't change this much or have that much of a difference between models this close to the storm. The snow will start Tuesday morning and the main cold front with the heavy precip moves through in the afternoon and evening. For now I will split the models and then update the forecast later today. That would be 12-18 inches from the base lodge up, and 6-12 inches from the base lodge down to the Village.

Then we get a break Wednesday and Thursday before the jetstream takes aim and we get a nice long storm series. The trend is to slow down the start a little to Friday night or Saturday morning. Once it starts we look to get a nice 5-6 days of several storms riding along the jet into CA. The main concern when dealing with a strong jet across the Pacific like this is snow levels. A shift of the jet slightly to the North or South can have a big affect on snow levels. Models have been pretty consistent all weekend and today of bring the snow levels close to lake level with some of the storms and then dropping them well below lake level behind each storm. It looks to me as of right now that the majority of the precip will fall as snow at lake level.

We are looking at total liquid amounts in the 4-6 inch range Saturday - Thursday. Above 7000 ft. that is an easy 4-6+ feet, this time it won't be fluff either. At lake level the potential is there for several feet if the snow levels cooperate. Worst case I don't see the snow levels ever going higher than 7000 ft. so the resorts will get buried next week. I Will be analyzing this big snow event everyday this week.

Looks like we could a break for Christmas weekend as the jetstream reloads and returns right after for more snow. Stay tuned.......BA

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