Friday, December 3, 2010

Base Builder......

Northstar picked up 10 inches on top last night as the cold front dipped a tiny bit further South than expected, just enough to get North Lake with heavier precip all night. At the base only and inch fell as snow levels hovered right around the base lodge elevation all night.

Currently on satellite you can see the cut-off low coming down the coast and moisture being drawn up ahead of it. This moisture will bring periods of rain showers at lake level over the weekend and snow showers on the mountains. Not expecting more than a few inches of accumulation. Sunday night the cut-off low finally pushes inland and will bring us a period of heavy snow and lowering snow levels. I do think that the snow levels will come down to lake level. Models are showing decent liquid amounts Sunday night in the 1-1.25 inch range. Snow ratios with this storm will be around 10:1 at lake level and 12:1 on the mountains. That would mean 8-12 inches if it starts as all snow in the Village, and 12-16 inches on top. With what fell last night we could break the 2 foot mark on top by Monday for a 3 day total. This is great heavy base-building snow that we could use this time of year.

Next week we see a pattern shift in the Pacific as a block begins to form around the Aluetian Islands just to the Southwest of Alaska. When this happens it can mean several weeks of above average precip for the West Coast as the jet stream is forced under the block. The better position for the block for us would be a little East of where it is going to set-up initially next week. We will be on the up-side of the trough in the Eastern Pacific which will keep the heaviest precip to our North next week. We should still see some light precip around mid-week with similar snow levels to last night. I think this is just my dad's prayers being answered as he is coming to visit next week and he doesn't like to be here when it snows. He spent 35 years in a job where he had to go to work everytime it snowed, so he's over it.

By next weekend and the following week the trough shifts a bit East and it looks like we will finally get the brunt of the strong jetstream. We may start with milder storms but then colder storms as the colder air moves down from the North. The way it looks right now the middle of the month could be very snowy. Teleconnections support no strong blocking in the East in the long term and troughing near the West Coast. Maybe the MJO will even get involved over the next couple of weeks. November re-cap tomorrow, stay tuned this could get fun.....BA

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