Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Another Dump Before a Holiday.....

I can't believe we have gotten feet of snow the week before each of the 3 holiday weekends so far this year.

Light precip already working its way into the Tahoe area this morning. Amounts should stay light this morning with maybe a few inches up above 7000 ft. The jetstream is still to our North but will work its way South during the day today. The snow will become heavy by this evening and stay heavy overnight. The snow levels may come up around or just above the Village during the heaviest part of the subtropical moisture that pushes in this evening, but all snow on the mountain. The cold front pushes down from the North overnight and moves through Wednesday morning. This will bring another period of heavy snow for everyone.

The models this morning have increased the total amount of liquid for the storm. The tricky part is that the air is so cold that snow ratios will greatly increase overnight and into tomorrow. The faster this happens the more snow we will see. Also, when air this cold moves in it usually continues snow showers over the mountains for a while after the main cold front moves through. Post frontal snow showers can pile up and sometimes the models don't show this. I think the conservative thing to do is to stick with the snowfall forecast of 10-15 inches in the Village & 15-20 inches on top. Then we may to need to adjust up from there depending on the snow showers behind the front tomorrow.

The longer range is a mess right now with no agreement among the models with regards to the cut-off low this weekend and the placement of the ridge next week in the Pacific. Let's get through this nice little storm and then look at the next one later.

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