Wednesday, November 24, 2010

The Tally........

Another 6-14 inches on Northstar in the last 24 hours. That puts the final 4 day storm total at 93 inches which is just 3 inches shy of 8 feet. It also means they have officially picked up 25% of their annual snowfall average as of the day before Thanksgiving!

Temps are below zero this morning in Tahoe and will remain cold at night. Amazing skiing conditions for the Thanksgiving holiday with just about all of the resorts opening and beautiful weather. Temps in the teens & 20's today will warm quickly into the 30's tomorrow and Friday ahead of the next storm.

There is another cold storm headed our way for Saturday and Saturday night. It will pale in comparison to the huge 4 days storm we just had, but it will bring more cold and snow. The storm will have less than an inch of precip to work with, but with 20:1 snow ratios again we could still see a nice little storm. Models this morning show anywhere from .25 - .75 inches of liquid over Tahoe by Sunday. That is 5-15 inches if the average temperature is 20 degrees which it should be with highs in the 20's and lows in the teens. Right now the forecast is for 5-10 inches at the base and 10-15 inches on top. We will have to keep an eye on the storm the next few days to see how much moisture it can really pull in. The GFS run from the overnight only had 2-5 inches falling but right now that is the driest I have seen.

Cold air sticks around through Monday before we moderate temps again next week under a zonal flow. Basically storms will be hitting the Pacific NW and we will be just to the South. There is a chance to see a little light snow if one of them dips far enough South the end of next week.

Looking long-range the tele-connection patterns will start to turn in our favor. Now through the first week of December they favor cold and blocking in the Eastern half of the country which slows down the pattern and tries to build a ridge over the Western half of the country. Heading towards the middle of December the forecast models show the Arctic Oscillation(AO) & the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) going positive, and the Pacific/North American(PNA) going negative. That should remove any blocking in the pattern and open the storm door into the West Coast by the middle of December. Our chances of a decent storm should increase by the second week of December.

The Madden Julian Oscillation(MJO)has been dead but is forecast to come back to life and strengthen into the maritimes over the next two weeks. From there it should head towards the Western Pacific by the middle of December. All of this means that things are lining up atmospherically for us to potentially have another big snow event around Christmas. Could end up being an October, November, AND December to remember. Stay tuned........BA

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