Monday, November 1, 2010

Nov. 07' Repeat?

Got another little dusting on top this weekend.

This week is going to be warm for November with highs in the 60's and lows not cold enough to make snow. Cold diving into the East will be our nemisis this month. Everytime that happens it builds ridges over the West, unless enough cold air builds over Canada and the ridge backs off the coast a bit allowing the cold to come West.

The ridge will break down this upcoming weekend with a couple of storms hitting the Pacific NW Sunday-Tuesday. The European model has been quite aggressive with the first storm, but the rest of the models have been showing it stay mostly to our North. Even though the Euro is the outlier it has had a more accurate record so far this fall so we do have to keep an eye on the Sunday storm.

After the that it looks quiet again next week. The MJO is dead for now and nothing really to juice the jetstream. Today's La Nina report shows it leveling out with all 4 areas at -1.4. That is a decent La Nina and is forecast to get stronger by next month. We should start to really see the affects of the La Nina on the pattern by mid-December. Good news for now is that the NAO is forecasted to stay neutral and the PNA is forecasted to go negative. That would help to keep the flow going across the continent and not keep any ridges anchored over the West for a long period of time. I am still watching for the ridge to back up slightly around mid-month which would allow some cold air to come in and get us some good snowmaking weather. BA

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