Sunday, November 28, 2010

Just the Beginning?

Northstar picked up 13 inches on top & 9 at the base from the nice little storm yesterday. That was on the higher end of the forecast as a nice wave came through both in the morning and the evening. The season total is now 119" only 1" shy of 10 feet this November. That may be the snowiest November in the history of the mountain. The entire mountain is open except for Lookout, which I can't remember happening before January in a long time.

Cold air today in the teens & 20's will slowly warm into the 20's & 30's under sunny skies through Wednesday. By Wednesday night a cold front will be slowly moving down the coast and precipitation will be moving towards the area.

The latest runs of the GFS model today want to tilt the jestream as a cut-off low dives down off the coast Thursday and Friday. This would aim the moisture to our North until the cut-off pushes onshore during the weekend. Models last night were in pretty good agreement that the cold front would push the jetstream into the area and give us a decent storm on Thursday and then bring more snow over the weekend as the cut-off pushes inland. This needs to be monitored all week as the potential exists to bring us snow measured in feet. If the storm takes on a tilt it could mean heavy precip falls to our North and we only end up with several inches of snow.

The pattern looks to stay progressive the following week as a deep low forms in the Pacific and moves towards the West Coast. We could get another decent cold storm around the 8th. Models should struggle a little bit with the pattern in December as we transition into true winter. The cold taking shots at the East Coast in December should reverse and start coming down the West Coast. Our storm door should be wide open by January. BA

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