Monday, October 25, 2010

The Fun Has Begun................

Had quite a wet weekend with several inches of rain falling. The snow levels came down last night and lingering snow showers brought a few inches of accumulation to the mountain. It is nice to see the ski trails covered in white!

Will be interesting to see if the mountains turns on their snow guns tonight as the temps the next few nights will be plenty cold enough to make snow with lows in the 20's. The storm we were watching for Tuesday will brush us to our North. Wouldn't be surprised to see a flake as it goes by.

Our snowstorm for Friday has been changing slightly over the past 24 hours. Instead of driving straight into us with heavy snow and low snow levels, it is starting to look as if the storm will split which would cause it to hit the mountains and slide South. That would mean lighter precip with snow levels around 7,000 ft. and lot of shadowing because there is no push over the mountains. We will have to watch over the next couple of days, but the trend definitely looks to be a light snow event on the mountains with rain at lake level.

Another storm is right on the heels of that one for Saturday and Sunday. This storm looks to have a bit more moisture and push as it comes through just to our North. This storm should bring snow to lake level before it ends. Right now it looks like we could see several inches above 7,000 ft. with light accumulations at lake level. This would make for a white Halloween & the 4th out of 5 weekends of October with precip in this record breaking month.

Looking to next week there are a few variables on the table. Lots of cold air is building in Eastern Canada that will come down into the Eastern half of the country. If the NAO goes negative the cold could lock in place and block up the pattern causing a warm ridge to build up the West Coast. If it stays neutral the cold will move off the coast and the storm door will remain open next week, but with a more normal La Nina pattern where we are on the Southern edge of the storms. NAO forecast is all over the place, therefore the models are back and forth right now on these scenarios for next week. Stay tuned.

The MJO is forecast to continue to weaken and then possibly strengthen and re-emerge in the Western Pacific around the middle of November. I am not expecting to see anymore huge storms until that happens. BA

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