Looks like we are still going to get decent snow this weekend, just in a different format than what was thought 24 hours ago. It is rare to see the models have such a hard time figuring out the pattern this short in advance of storms.
The cold front coming in from the Northeast is going to push further South now over the weekend. That means two things; 1) the storm for tonight will be pushed to our South and will not affect the area, 2) it will be colder over the weekend. It looks as if a heavy band of snow is going to set up over the area Saturday night due to the instability of the cold air behind the front. Some models have as much as a foot falling with this snow band and some as little as 6 inches. Because this band is coming down from the North there will not be a shadowing affect from the mountains. Will have to watch to see exactly where the band sets up but right now it looks like the North end of Tahoe. Snow ratios of 15:1 will make for some light powdery snow.
Behind the cold front highs won't get out of the 20's Sunday and Monday on the mountain. Storm for Sunday night off the Pacific is still on track to drop another 3-6 inches of snow into Monday. The snow may come in various ways over the weekend but I still think that by Monday we get at least a foot above 7000 ft. With snow levels dropping to 4000 ft. it shouldn't be much less at lake level than at 7000 ft. The key to the snowfall totals will be where the band sets up Saturday night with the cold air.
Still on track for a decent storm Wednesday and some bigger storms next weekend. Stay tuned.....BA
"The habit of giving only enhances the desire to give." Walt Whitman