Saturday, January 9, 2010

Week 1=Snow, Week 2=Buried!

Say goodbye to warm and wet as the pattern is less than 3 days away from a change to colder and snowier. I decided this weekend would be my last chance to head to the coast for a small vacation before I'm buried in Tahoe for the rest of the winter.

Storm coming in two waves for Tues/Wed. First wave is going to arrive Tuesday and work to moisten the atmosphere and break down the ridge. Second wave right on it's heals for Wednesday will be slitting but looks to bring a decent amount of snow over Tahoe. Models have been pretty consistent with an inch plus of liquid over Tahoe and up to 1.5 inches on the crest. Early estimates are for 6-12 inches in the village, with 12+ inches above 7000 ft.

The ridge will try to set back up going into next weekend with a storm moving by to our North. Meanwhile, the Negative NAO continues to head towards neutral weakening the block over Greenland and allowing the pattern to progress. At the same time the PNA goes towards negative allowing the the jet, being juiced by El Nino, to crash into CA for the week of the 18th. Once it starts snowing it may not stop for a long time as there will be nothing to stop storm after storm hitting CA going into the end of the month. The pattern favors the jet stream being towards Southern CA, but close enough for plenty of snow here, with some of the storms taking direct aim on Tahoe.

Rest up your shoveling arms, gas your blowers, and get ready for to be buried in snow because in 10 days a real Tahoe winter looks to show up. Stay tuned for more details on this weeks storm........BA

"If you are not criticized, you may not be doing much." Donald H. Rumsfeld

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