Sunday, January 3, 2010


Can't even think of a title but the thought the flat line was a good representation of the storm pulse over the next week or two.

The ridge has built in along the West Coast and is stuck there for the time being do to the block near Greenland caused by the negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). This is a great pattern for cold and snow on the East Coast, and warm/dry conditions on the West Coast. Now we will have to sit and watch for two things, the NAO to go positive weakening the block and the MJO (or the convection that is showing up on the MJO models) to move into the Western Pacific. Currently the MJO signal has stalled in the Western Pacific. Forecast models have it stalling there or slowly moving East over the next two weeks. They also have the NAO staying negative, but possibly finally heading positive around the middle of January.

We should stay dry for this entire week as the ridge looks strong enough to keep any precip out of the area. Models showing the same for next week and even if they change and we do get some precip it will be light as the ridge weakens the storms like it did this past week.

Looking for a major pattern change as soon as the two conditions talked about above are met. Right now the best chance for the change looks to be around mid-month. The strong jet across the Pacific fueled by El Nino would love to crash into CA as soon as the ridge can be moved. Biggest problem is the negative AO and the amount of cold/dense air that is pouring into the Eastern half of the country. Air that cold and dense is hard to move. Stay tuned for updates on when the pattern will break.......BA

"We can learn much from wise words, little from wisecracks, and less from wise guys." William Arthur Ward

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