Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Nice One.........

Northstar is reporting 3 inches of new snow from the band of snow that moved through overnight.

Next storm is off the coast and ready to move in this afternoon. Looking at this morning models they seem to agree on .25-.5 inches of liquid over Tahoe with .5-.75 inches over the crest. Most of the snow will fall tonight into Wednesday. Snow ratios will average 15:1 above 7000 and 12:1 at lake level. That puts us at 3-6 inches at the Village, with 4-8 inches above 7000 ft.

On Thursday a warm front moves in ahead of the next storm which will trigger light snow showers with not much accumulation and snow levels rising to around lake level at 6000 ft.

Next storm for Friday reminds me of the storm from last Monday that pounded Northwest CA and gave us only an inch of snow. This storm is going to do the same with several feet possible up around Mt. Shasta. We will have to watch the jet to see how far South it sags during the storm. Models the past couple of days have been showing .5-1 inches of liquid reaching Tahoe, especially along the crest. We will have to watch this storm closely the next couple days. The GFS has a colder solution with this storm with snow levels below lake level, but some models hint at snow levels as high as 7000 ft.

Models this morning are showing a weaker storm for Sunday/Monday, and taking it to our North. This will be the start of some quieter and milder weather for next week as the ridge builds in along the CA coast. A strong jet across the Pacific is going to brings storms very close all week but it doesn't look like any close enough for accumulations. This may be a good thing as the snow levels next week will be above 7000 ft.

Ridge looks to hold strong on the models going into the second week of January. What they usually do not catch onto this far out is the MJO and increased storm activity in the Tropical Pacific. Looking for the strong block that is going to form off the Northeast coast, associated with the NAO going more negative over the next week, to start to weaken as the NAO goes more positive towards mid-January. That should alleviate the upstream block caused by the ridge stuck along the CA coast. Meanwhile, the MJO is forecast to be in the Western Pacific by the second week of Jan. and is currently strengthening. Plus the affects from El Nino should become greater into January. This should all lead to a breakthrough of the jetstream into CA by or before the middle of Jan. Stay tuned...BA

"Pleasure in the job puts perfection in the work."

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