Saturday, December 26, 2009

A Little More Dust........

Splitting storm approaching the CA coast today. Moisture is going to work its way into Tahoe tonight and tomorrow while the main part of the storm dives into Southern CA. I've been looking at the models trying to come up with snow totals, but there has been a lot of disagreement. I'm going to split down the middle between the NAM model which shows 1-2 inches over Tahoe, and the GFS which has been consistent with 3-6 inches. Light off and on snow showers tonight through Sunday should pile up to around 2-4 inches.

Behind the storm the ridge is going to start to build off the coast of CA, and we are going to start into somewhat of a La Nina like pattern. Storms coming across the Pacific will be pushed to our North into the Pacific NW by the ridge. Some storms will be able to come into Northern CA as they slide down the East side of the ridge or crush it a bit.

Next storm looks to be around Wed. that comes over the ridge. It will be a cold storm with light amounts of snow, still measuring in inches instead of feet. We may see a couple of storms like this with another one possible next weekend.

Take a look here again if you missed it on Tuesday. The AO (Arctic Oscillation) is off the charts negative. This will send tons of arctic air into the U.S. the next few weeks. Some forecasters suggest it could be some of the coldest arctic outbreaks since the 70's. With a negative NAO forming a block off the Northeast coast, this cold air will not be able to move Eastward. That will keep the ridge parked over the West.

We need the ridge off the coast of CA to shift northward and for the Southern jet to come under the ridge in order to get the affects of a prolonged period of heavy snowfall from El Nino conditions. We may have to wait a couple of weeks for the Southern jet to strengthen and for the MJO to cycle back around. Meanwhile we should have cold and shots of snow, some shots could still be big just not prolonged. This is a good example of what can happen when arctic cold and a cold Pacific Ocean overwhelm the El Nino signal. Stay tuned as the crazy weather patterns keep us on our toes......BA

"Nothing fixes a thing so intensely in the memory as the wish to forget it." Michel de Montaigne

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