Monday, November 2, 2009

We're Almost There......

Ok, got most of the info I wanted for today's post. Hope all of you got outside this weekend. The nice weather is going to continue this week. NWS is forecasting that Truckee could hit 70 tomorrow. The fun & games may end by Thursday though, but now it's Nov. so hopefully it's snowtime!

Watching the the models over the weekend they are coming around to what my instincts were on Friday. Each day they are coming more in line with the idea that the ridge kicks East by Friday. There may be a snowstorm in New England on Friday, but the NAO(North Atlantic Oscillation) will be positive, so there won't be any blocking in place to hold the trough over the East which in turn would hold the ridge over the West. The trough will head off the East Coast & the ridge over the West will move into the center of the country opening the storm door on the West Coast.

There could be a couple areas of low pressure heading towards the coast by the weekend, one Friday & another on Sunday. Right now the jetstream wants to take aim more on the Pacific NW coast, so we would be on the Southern end of the storms. We are going to have to watch over the next few days to see exactly how far South the storm tracks may be. The storms would have enough cold air to bring snow levels near lake level once the cold fronts arrive.

Looking longer range the PNA wants to try and go negative towards the middle of Nov. and so does the AO, which would suggest cold air and troughing in the West which are good conditions for storms & cold here. Fantasy land on the models suggest another cold storm for us around the 12th.

Looking at the month of October we were 4.1 degrees below average. I updated the temp chart on the charts page to show that we now have been below avg. 21 of the last 24 months. This could be attributed to the overall cold PDO(Pacific Ocean Temps) over the last 2 years. The Lake Tahoe Basin had 184% of average precip for the month of Oct., & the Truckee River Basin had 242% of avg. What a great start to the water year!

Looking at today's El Nino update from the NWS El Nino has been exploding the past couple of weeks. All regions have warmed once again with the temps in order from region 1-4 at; .4, 1.2, 1.5, & 1.6. El Nino is forecast to peak this month on most models before fading out. What will be interesting to see is how fast it fades in Dec. if it does fade. My theory has been that the faster it crashes the bigger our winter will be. You can read my previous posts for more details. There is also more cooling going on in the Pacific North of Hawaii. Imagine if the ridge wanted to park there this winter allowing the Arctic jet to crash down its East side into the West Coast, at the same time as the Southern jet enhanced by El Nino wants to crash into CA. One can dream.....BA


Anonymous said...

I know your hobby is looking at models and developing your own forecast, but do you have a go to weather website that you trust/like to look at for forecasts? (e.g., weatherbonk, etc.)

BA said...

Sure, I am a spotter for the NWS in Reno & have been there to talk with them. I read their discussions and I read the discussions on