Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Wed. Update.....

Models still back and forth the last 24 hours on precip amounts for tomorrow night, but the highest output was around 3-6 inches. Thinking that snow totals by Thursday will be 1-3 inches at lake level and 3-6 inches up on the mountain due to better lift and colder temps up high.

There will be another storm diving in to our North Fri./Sat. Yesterday some of the models suggested it would come far enough South to bring us a few more inches, but today it looks as if the storm will just brush us and reinforce the cold air. Nighttime temps behind these storms will be plenty cold enough for snowmaking through the weekend.

All eyes still on the potential storm for next wednesday. Models have been pretty consistent with showing a decent storm digging off the coast and coming in. Still really early in the forecast though for high confidence and details. The MJO is still on the move towards the Western Pacific so that should help our storm chances going into the middle of the month. The PNA is also still on track to go slightly negative which favors West Coast troughs.

In yesterday's El Nino update the temps had leveled off from last week. Nino region 3.4 is at 1.7 which is where it is forecasted to peak this month before El Nino starts to fade out. What is interesting is the PDO or overall Pacific Ocean temp, got cut in half in Oct. from .52 to .27. Many forecaster were thinking it would go up with the strengthening El Nino, but the cold of the rest of the Pacific caused the opposite. The significance in my eyes is that if it had gone up we would have thrown out our analog of 1951-52 and be left with only dry El Nino winters to compare to current conditions. If the PDO goes negative by December then 51-52 would be one of the closest matches based on: conditions leading up to this winter, the strength of this El Nino (which is still weak at .9 last month), and how fast the El Nino & PDO temps crash.

Update tomorrow morning with more storm details....BA

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