Friday, November 20, 2009

Storm Day........

Today will be the first storm of the year to start grading the predicted snowfall vs. the actual snowfall. I will also be able to grade the each model's performance to see which one we can trust more as we can go into the season.

Looking at the latest model's we have a couple of scenarios, a faster one and a slower one. With snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour, the speed of the storm will make a big difference in snow amounts. What we will have today is about a six hour period this afternoon into the evening of heavy snow and high winds creating blizzard conditions. We will also have falling temps which will increase snow ratios the longer it snows. I am going to split the total snowfall of the faster and slower model predictions. Final forecast is for 4-8 inches of snow in the Village, with 8-12 inches above 7000 ft.  There will be lots of cold unstable air behind the cold front which will produce lingering snow showers overnight. This is always the wild card as we could pick up additional snow accumulations, but it's hard to predict.

Ridge build back in over the weekend with the Sunday storm now looking to stay just to our North. We should see a quiet week with gradually warming temps as the ridge builds along the West Coast.

We have a couple interesting things developing for the first week of December. The MJO is still on the move Eastward which should enhance the jetstream and bring storms back into the West Coast. We also have an AO (Arctic Oscillation) that is going to head deeply negative. This should send some arctic air down the West Coast and into the country. The two combined could give us some cold storms, great snowmaking conditions, and snow that doesn't melt away helping to build the bases. BA

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