Summer's Last Hurrah.......

The models today continue to show moisture with the cold front on Tuesday night. In the fall the models are usually overdone on moisture & it's hard to get it to snow. I still think we won't see much more than a brief snowshower, but I'll keep watching over the weekend. The snow levels will drop between 5-6,000 ft. on Tuesday night. The big impact will be the temps. Highs this weekend in the 80's will struggle to reach the 50's on Wed. This is the weekend to finish up your woodstacking, which is what I'll be doing all weekend.

The storm will slide into the Rockies from the PacNW on Thursday, so expect to see more snow there on the Colorado Webcams. Arapahoe & Loveland are already blowing snow in the annual race to be the first to open their ribbon of death.

Two things are happening in the long-range. First, let me say that all of these models & charts that I reference are now available in the "tools" page on the home sight at tahoeweatherdiscussion.com so that you can follow along. The GFS model continues to hint at retrogression of the ridge to North of Hawaii with more storms to come onshore starting the secong week of October. With a negative PNA & Negative EP-NP teleconnection, as well as the MJO going towards phase 6 of the WH phase space, this could be possible. In that situation the storm track would normally be pushed into the Western U.S.

The problem is that there is cold water building North of Hawaii & warm water building offshore of the Pac NW which is indicative of a Positive EP-NP teleconnections. In that case the storm track would be pushed to our North & a ridge would form over the West. Also, if the MJO continues to sit & spin in phase 5 like many models suggest we won't get much help there. This is something I'll be monitoring the next few weeks because it could mean the difference between a dry or wet fall. BA