Happy Thanksgiving....

We could see a flake or two on the mountain today as the cold front pushes through with a lack of moisture.  The sun will be out for the rest of the weekend with highs in the 40's on the mountain and lows in the 20's at night.  Temperatures at night should allow for snowmaking at the lower elevations while we could inversions develop this weekend for the upper half of the mountain.

It is going to be a quiet week weather wise with sun and highs in the 40's on the mountain most of the week and in to the 50's in the Village.  We are entering a postive PNA (Pacific North American) teleconnection pattern which producing ridging along the West Coast and blocks out storms for a little while. 

The good news is that we have La Nina conditions which favors a negative PNA pattern and troughing along the West Coast, so the quiet weather shouldn't last for too long.  Looking at the weather for week 2 it appears that the ridge is going to really build Northward all the way up into the Gulf of Alaska forming a block and keeping the storms up into Alaska and Canada.

Some weather models show the ridge a little further West which would drive some of that Arctic air from Alaska down the West Coast.  That would also bring the chance of light snow and very cold air starting around next weekend, so we will have to watch that.

Another thing that is possible when there is high pressure blocking in the gulf of Alaska is that sub-tropical jetstream can come underneath into the West Coast.  Right now there really isn't a sub-tropical jet to do that, but the wild card can be the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation)  that can create psuedo El Nino conditions  for about a week when it moves through the Pacific and is strong enough.  Right now it is strengthening in the Indian Ocean as it circles the globe. 

We will have to watch it as it moves towards the Western Pacific over the next 2 weeks.  I will also be watching the Arctic Oscillation as the forecast is for it to go negative in December.  That would aid in displacing the cold air in the Arctic Southward into the U.S.  Last year we saw a coupling of that and the jetstream coming under the Pacific ridge more than once for a months worth of snow in a week.  Stay tuned....BA