Northstar Weather Discussion

Picked 2 Inches Overnight

2012-02-01T20:18:00.000-08:00

We woke up to 2 inches of fresh snow from the front that moved through in the early morning hours. It left a nice little coating of snow to refresh the slopes.

The weather will be cool through the weekend with higs in the 30's and 40's on the mountain. The next chance for some snow will be next Tuesday as a storm approaches the coast and starts to split as it hits the ridge of high pressure in place. We will have to see how well the storm holds together to see if it can bring us several inches of fresh snow.

After that the forecast models are really struggling with the pattern. Some suggest storms try to break through again for the end of next week. Others suggest the weather gets quiet again into the following weekend. We are monitoring the MJO which is an area of convection moving through teh Pacific along the equator. As it progress East the substropical jet stream could tap its energy and break through storms under the ridge and into CA.

We will continue to keep tracking the possible storms for next week. Stay tuned....BA

Light Snow Tonight Could Dust the Slopes...

2012-01-31T20:52:00.000-08:00

The weather is staying a little unsettled as the final storm moving into the Pacific Northwest tonight. Most of the models show only a enough moisture for a light dusting but the lastest Euro shows the possibility we could see a couple inches on the mountain.

Starting Thursday the ridge starts to build up the West Coast for about a week of quiet weather. The temperature through the weekend look like they will be in the 40's with lows overnight in the 20's. That will keep the snow nice and soft during the day.

The next break through of storms looks like it could be around the end of next week or into the following week. The ridge will block storms until then but the forecast is for the ridge to shift North possibly allowing the storms to break underneath by mid-month. Until then it looks like the temperatures will stay seasonal and the sun will shine.

This is the weather so things can change quickly. Stay tuned...BA

Unsettled Weather This Week

2012-01-29T16:41:00.000-08:00

There will be 3 storms moving into the Pacific NW over the next few days. Those storms will brush us on their Southern edge bringing clouds and maybe a flake or two. Not expecting more than a possible dusing as there will not be much moisture moving through.

The weather will become quiet for the second half of the week and into next weekend with sun and highs in the 40's. Ridging will be building in over the West keep the storm activity up into Alaska.

The forecast models are not as accurate more than a week out but looking at the overall pattern it looks like we could have some changes for week 2. The ridge will amplify North into Canada and the door could open to some storms starting around the 7th/8th.

We will continue to watch for the potential change in the pattern all week. Long-range models suggest that the second half of February could be stormy. BA

A Few Chances for Light Snow this Week

2012-01-27T21:09:00.000-08:00

The weather will be nice over the weekend with sun and highs in the 40's. Then on Sunday night a storm moving into the Pacific NW could brush us with a few flakes or a dusting.

Monday and Tuesday we continue the nice weather with sun and cool temps. Then Tuesday night into Wednesday we have the chance of another dusting as we get brushed with snow showers by another storm moving by to our North.

After that the weather looks quiet into next weekend. We continue to watch for the possibility of storms undercutting the ridge off the coast 2nd week of February and coming into CA. Right now this looks like our next shot of getting some decent snow.

Until then stay tuned for any changes and for updates...BA

The Weather Quiets Down....

2012-01-26T19:55:00.000-08:00

We have a front moving through tonight that will bring clouds and maybe a few flakes up top. Then the weekend will be quiet with sun and highs in the 40's and lows in the 20's.

A storm hitting the Pacific NW on Sunday will bring the chance of some light precip Sunday night. Right now it looks like we will get a dusting to maybe an inch.

The rest of next week the weather looks to stay quiet as the ridge sits off the coast keeping the storms to our North. It looks like the next chance we could see some bigger snow will be the week of the 6th. Stay tuned in case that changes. BA

We Ende up with 5 Feet Up Top!

2012-01-24T21:41:00.000-08:00

Northstar picked up another 8 inches yesterday to bring the storm totals to 61 inches or just over 5 feet over the past 5 days up top. That made for the best conditions of the season and some great powder skiing yesterday with pleny of leftovers in the trees today.

The sun returned today and will be with us through Thursday. On Friday we have the chance for a snow showers as the cold from from a storm hitting the Pacific NW slides down over NV to our East. We could see another weak system on Monday that could bring another snow shower.

The forecast models are in disagreement once we get towards the middle of next week. Some bring in the chance of another weak storm that could bring some light snow. Others suggest the ridge off the coast could shift West enough for a stronger cold storm to dive down the West Coast. That could bring some decent accumulating snow. Stay tuned. BA

Biggest Storm of the Season Last Night

2012-01-23T20:00:00.000-08:00

We woke up this morning to 29 more inches up top in the past 24 hours. That brings the 4 day snow totals up to 53 inches at the summit.

The snow continued to come down hard this morning with several more inches accumulating today before the snow tapered off this afternoon. We will look at the final tally in the morning.

The rest of this week the weather looks quiet with sunny skies to enjoy all the new snow. Next week it looks like we could see a shot or two of colder air with some storms sliding in to our East. Right now it looks like the next big push of storms could come around the 7th of February and beyond.

The tallys and more on the long-range forecast tomorrow. BA

2 Feet of Snow as Of This Morning & Still Coming Down

2012-01-22T20:12:00.000-08:00

We picked up another Foot of snow during the day on Saturday with the post-frontal snow showers. That brings the 3 day total up to 2 feet up top and the snow began falling again this morning. Expecting to possibly double the totals by Monday night with the next storm.

Snow pushed in this morning ahead of the next storm and we picked up several more inches during the day today. The snowfall will pick up in intensity tonight with the heaviest snow falling after midnight through Monday morning. Snowfall totals by Monday night should be around 12-18 inches in the Village and 15-23 inches from the base lodge up. The summit could come in right around feet.

That would double the totals and bring us close to 4 feet up top for the 4 day totals. That will help us to open a lot more terrain. Then we finish off the week with some beautiful weather. BA

Snow Day!

2012-01-21T20:49:00.000-08:00

We picked up 8 inches overnight and then it snowed all day. I'm assuming we picked up over a foot at the summit when the updated totals come out in the morning. That's on top of the 4 inches from Thursday night.

The next storm will move in during the day on Sunday. This storm is not as strong as the last one but we will pick up more snow since it will be colder and all snow. The snow should fall heaviest Sunday night into Monday morning with snow showers lingering into Monday night. Total snowfall by Tuesday morning should be 10-15 inches in the Village, 15-20 inches at the base lodge, and 20-25 inches at the Summit.

Starting Tuesday the storm track shifts back to the North again and we finish the week on a quiet note. Next weekend and beyond the models diverge with some showing a cold snowy pattern setting in and other showing the ridge off the coast with another prolonged quiet period.

The mountain should be in great shape by Tuesday. BA

Snow Level Will Drop Overnight

2012-01-20T22:30:00.000-08:00

We picked up 4 inches Thursday night from storm number one, and storm number two is now ready to push through.

Snow levels came up ahead of the storm for Friday night. As the cold front approaches around midnight the snow levels will fall back down to the Village. Snow showers will continue in the wake of the storm through the day on Saturday. By Saturday night we should have 6-12 inches at the base and 1-2 feet at the summit.

After a break in the action Saturday night into Sunday there is a colder storm that will move in by Sunday night. This storm will bring snow through the day on Monday. Snowfall total with this storm look to be around 1-2 feet on the mountain.

After that it looks like we will have some quite weather to finish out the week. Snow totals in the morning. Stay tuned. BA

It's Snowing!

2012-01-19T21:27:00.000-08:00

It starting snowing this afternoon and it's going to continue through the weekend and into Monday. We will be measuring it in feet and it's about time. The first storm tonight looks to drop 2-4 inches at the base and 4-8 inches at the summit by Friday morning.

The strong storm for tomorrow night still looks to be on track. It will be all snow on the mountain and may start as rain in the Village but by Saturday morning the snow levels drop to the valley floors. Plenty of moisture behind the front keeping snow showers going through the day on Saturday.

Great agreement among the models that 2-3 inches of liquid falls through Saturday. With the mix to start in the Village we'll say 10-15 inches by Saturday night. From the base lodge up 15-25 inches with 25 being at the summit.

There will be a break on Sunday before the next colder storm moves in Sunday night into Monday. Total liquid on the latest model runs is around an inch but the snow ratios will be higher with the colder air. Could see another foot on the mountain through Monday, maybe a little more at the summit.

Total snowfall for the period by the Tuesday morning snow report should be around 1-2 in the Village and 2-3 feet on the mountain, maybe up to 4 feet at the summit by Monday night.

By Tuesday the ridge builds in off the coast as the trough digs to the North of Hawaii. That pushes the storm track back up into the Pacific NW. The base and conditions should be looking really good by Tuesday. BA

Snow Day Tomorrow!

2012-01-18T20:38:00.000-08:00

A few changes to the forecast but the snow amounts in the post below look good through Saturday. The only changes are to slow the Sunday storm until Sunday night and the Tuesday storm looks like it will miss us to the North now. The Sunday night storm may receive about half of the snowfall from yesterday's forecast if the GFS forecast model is right but the Euro keeps it the same.

Other than that we are about to get the first significant storm of the season with several feet of snow on the mountain through the weekend. More details in the post below. It's about time! BA

Less Than 48 Hours Till Snow Time!

2012-01-17T20:42:00.000-08:00

The trend of the models today is to delay the onset of the precipitation until Thursday and to lower snow levels a little. That means it should be all snow over most of the mountain through Friday night and down to the Village from Saturday and beyond.

The snow should begin to fall by Thursday afternoon. By Friday morning we are looking for around 2-4 inches in the Village, 3-6 inches at the base lodge, and 6-9 inches at the summit.

A bigger storm moves in on Friday lasting into Saturday with lots of moisture. A little bit of forecast model disagreement on the total precip and on the snow levels. Right now it looks like the snow levels may briefly rise just above the base lodge Friday night before falling Saturday morning.

We could pick up 1-2 feet on the mountain through Saturday. That brings the storm totals up 18 inches at the base lodge and up to 3 feet at the summit. In the Village we could pick up several inches during the day Saturday.

Sunday we have another big storm that is colder with snow levels down to lake level. This storm looks like it could bring 1-2 feet of snow to the entire mountain. Then there is another storm for Tuesday into Wednesday that could bring several inches or more.

Total snowfall through next Wednesday looks like we could hit 3 feet at the base lodge and 5+ feet at the summit. These amounts could still increase or decrease but that is the best estimate as of today's forecast model runs. BA

The Snowmaking's Been Great But We're Ready for the Real Stuff!

2012-01-16T20:40:00.000-08:00

We have had some of the best conditions in Tahoe with the snowmaking so far this winter. The time has come however to leave the guns and let mother nature do her job. There is a train of storms about to pull into Tahoe with a load of snow.

Models vary a little on the start of the precip but it looks like some light snow should start by Wednesday night. On Thursday the precip could pick up a little and we could see 3-6 inches on the mountain by Thursday night.

On Friday a much stronger storm pushes in bringing snow levels up a bit to above mid-mtn at the start before crashing below the base by Saturday morning. At the summit we could pick up 1-2+ feet by Saturday with several inches up to a foot at the base.

Then on Sunday much colder storm moves in that could bring another 1-2 feet of snow on the mountain. That's not all as another storm pushes in next Tuesday with another foot or more possible. After we are said and done we could see 3-5 feet of snow on the mountain over the next 9 days.

Stay tuned as we fine tune the details as the storms get closer. BA

The Storms Details Continue to Come Through

2012-01-14T21:01:00.000-08:00

Things are starting to become more clear on the storms coming for later this week. We will start the week off with maybe a snow shower and lots of cold as a cold front pushes through Sunday night.

After a quiet start to the week we should see the first storm approach on Wednesday. Expect increasing clouds and wind and then the precip could start falling by Wednesday night. The first storm Wednesday night into Thursday looks like it could bring several inches of snow.

Then there is another storm for Friday into Saturday. This storm is looking pretty big but the snow levels will come up for the first half of the storm. On the upper half of the mountain above 7500 ft. we could see several feet accumulate over the 2 day period. On the lower half we will see less but how much isn't certain until we fine tuned the snow levels.

The final storm moves in around next Sunday into Monday and looks like it could be colder than the previous 2 storms. It's too early to talk amounts on this storm but right now it looks like it could drop a couple feet of snow.

It's still early so we will fine tune the details of the storms as we get closer. No matter what falls it will be exciting after the prolonged dry spell. Stay tuned...BA

What Will the Storms Bring Next Week?

2012-01-13T19:55:00.000-08:00

Hopefully lots and lots of snow. As good as the conditions have been with all of the snow making we can't wait to add a big base of natural snow.

We are now only five or so days out from the potential onset of storms so we can look at some of the details. We will start next week cold from a cold front that goes through Sunday night. Then we will warm a little as the first storm approaches on Wednesday.

Right now it looks like the first storm will move in around Wednesday night with snow levels of 7000 ft. The storm looks to be about moderate in strength with over a foot possible above 7000 ft. on the mountain. The storm should last through Thursday.

Then another colder and stronger storm arrives sometime on Friday with snow for the entire mountain, possibly a couple feet. Then a third storm which could be the coldest and strongest would arrive next weekend.

By the end of next week we could have several feet of fresh snow with chances that the pattern could continue into the following week. Stay tuned for continued daily updates as we get closer to these long-anticipated storms. BA

Cold Shot With Some Light Snow Sunday

2012-01-12T20:58:00.000-08:00

The weather will turn a little colder by Monday as a cold front pushest through Sunday possibly bringing some light snow showers to the mountain. The weather stays cold to start next week and then warms a little as storms approach the coast.

The latest forecast models continue to not be in 100% agreement yet on the track of the storms for next week. The storms will start to our North at the beginning of the week and then the majority of the models bring the storms further South in to Tahoe by Thursday. There are still a couple of models that suggest the storms stay just to the North until the weekend.

The jetstream coming across the Pacific will be strong so if the storms come far enough South next week it could mean significant amounts of snow. We will keep you updated daily as the storms get closer. Until then the snowmaking conditions will improve this weekend with tranquil weather. BA

Snow Seems Likely Now, But How Much...

2012-01-11T20:42:00.000-08:00

Colder air on the way this weekend to bring back the good snowmaking conditions, then maybe we won't need the guns much longer.

The forecast models continue to be in good agreement and consistent on the storms finally arriving next week. The storms will start in the Pacific NW this weekend and then work down the coast through next week.

We should see light snowfall begin as early as Tuesday night and then continue into Wednesday before some stronger storms arrive Thursday and into the weekend. It's still too early to talk snowfall amounts as we are watching where the exact storm track will setup.

We will see colder air move in on Sunday with a cold front and we could even see some light snow. Then it will be quiet and cold Monday and Tuesday before the snow arrives mid-week.Depending on the storm track we could see moderate or significant amounts of snow.

The pattern looks to continue for at least a week so we could start to recover and build a nice base. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune the details and potential snowfall for next week....BA

Confidence Increasing in Storm Chances Next Week

2012-01-10T20:55:00.000-08:00

The forecast models continued to come more into agreement today with regards to the storm track next week. The pattern change is underway with the ridge shifting North already. The ridge will build over Alaska by the weekend shifting the jet stream that has been hitting up there South downt the West Coast.

The question has been where will the blocking with the ridge setup exactly up near Alaska for next week. A littel too far West and we just get the Southern edge of the storms to the North. Over Alaska and into Western Canada the storm track would be further South into CA.

Today a majority of the forecast models showed the storms moving into CA starting next Wednesday and lasting through the following weekend. It is still too early for this to be set in stone. We should have a better idea by the end of the week. But the overall pattern in the Pacific is changing and things are becoming more favorable for storms to finally push in.

If today's forecast models were to verify then we would be measuring in feet next week. Stay tuned for updates as we continue to take a look at the position of the jet stream and storm track for next week. BA

Still A Chance for Storms Next Week

2012-01-08T16:30:00.000-08:00

The storm and cold front moving in from the Northwest on Tuesday is now going to split. That will keep the weather quiet this week but will cool the temperatures into the 40's. Overnight lows will be colder as well this week with better snowmaking conditions.

All eyes are on next week as the pattern is shifting in a way over the Pacific this week that could lead to big storms next week. The ridge that has been sitting off the coast for the past month will be moving North and then reforming up near Alaska. The big question is where will it be next week.

We would like to see the ridge to the South and East of the Aleutian Islands which would push the storm track down into CA and allow cold to come in from the North as well. The forecast models are putting the ridge anywhere from just South of the Aleutians, to over Alaska, or over the Bering Sea.

If the ridge is over the Bering Sea that would be a little too far North and West and the storm track would most likely stay just to our North. Over Alaska or further South the storms could come right into CA and we could pick up several storms with some good snow next week.

The forecast models continue to go back and forth on the final solution which is normal when there is a big pattern change coming. We will continue to watch this week to see what my happen. We should have a much better idea by the end of the week. BA

A Few Flakes on Wednesday and Colder

2012-01-07T20:46:00.000-08:00

The ridge of high pressure off the coast will begin to move North on Tuesday which will allow colder air to dig South through the area from the North. As the cold front goes through on Wednesday we may see a few snow showers. Not expecting more than a dusting right now.

High temperaturs will only be in the 40's on Wednesday with some colder nigth time temps in the 20's. Then the pattern over the Pacific continues to change and the storms get jammed up for the end of the week. That will return the nice weather and highs in the 40's on the mountain.

A ridge is going to form in the North Pacific next weekend and the placement is crtitical. Too far West and the storms could stay to our North, too far East and we could get a lot of precip but with high snow levels. If it sets up just right out around 160w we get a train of snowstorms through the third week of January.

We have been watching for a pattern change to start this week and it will. Stay tuned as we watch how things develop this week. Things could be a lot more interesting by this time next week. BA

Long Range Looking Good

2012-01-05T20:14:00.000-08:00

We've been talking about the pattern change coming next week and now forecasters across the country are starting to jump all over it. We most likely still have about 8-10 days before the flakes start flying but the changes will begin on Monday.

Starting Monday the ridge that has been off the coast blocking storms for the past 6 weeks will shift North in the Pacific. By the end of the week the forecast models have the ridge South of the Aleutian Islands and then pushing into Alaska by mid-month.

We have see this pattern before and what happens is that the storm track is pushed South down the West Coast under the ridge. We have not seen blocking in the North Pacific yet this season thanks to the positive Arctic Oscillation but it is now heading negative.

When blocking sets up it usually not only means snow but a prolonged period of storms hitting the West coast. We will be monitoring this developing all week. Right now the second half of January looks like it could be quite cold and snowy. Stay tuned. BA

Beautiful Weather Continues

2012-01-04T19:46:00.000-08:00

We continue to watch the forecast models for next week as the new pattern evolves over the Pacific. For the next week or so we will see fair weather with highs in the 40's and lows in the 20's.

Next week the forecast models continue to show the ridge that has been sitting off the coast for over a month shifting Northward and then inland into Canada by the end of next week. Meanwhile another ridge forms near the Aleutian Islands and then pushes into Alaska and Western Canada.

The first affects should be colder air coming down the coast by the end of next week. Then as we head into the week of the 14th we will hopefully see the storms start to hit CA coming across the Pacific under the ridge in the North Pacific. Stay tuned...BA

No More Ridge Off the Coast

2012-01-03T21:18:00.000-08:00

Fair weather for about 10 more days as the ridge off the coast shifts North starting this weekend and then inland to our North next week. Temperatures will remain in the 40's through the period with Sunny skies.

Then the second half of next week the ridge begins to rebuild in the North Pacific near the Aleutian Islands or over Alaska. The first thing this will do is allow the Arctic air building over Canada to drop South into the West. So we should start to see colder temps.

Then as we go into the following weekend the storm door should open. If the ridge sets up in the North Pacific by the end of next week and into the following week we should see a prolonged period of snow storms coming under the ridge from the 14th into the third week of the month. Stay tuned...BA

Sunny and Mild this Week, Looking Much Colder Next Week

2012-01-02T16:30:00.000-08:00

The ridge is still with us pushing the storm track up into Canada and keeping the weather tranquil. Highs this week on the mountain will be in the 40's with lows in the 20's. There will be some inversions so the snowmaking may be kept to the lower half of the mountain.

The ridge sitting off the coast will move inland next week and then a new ridge will form further North in the Pacific towards the Gulf of Alaska. That will allow some cooler air to move in from the North on Monday. Then that ridge moves inland over Cananda towards the end of next week with a new ridge forming further North near Alaska.

The weather next week looks to stay quiet as the pattern change starts taking place over the Pacific. Towards the end of next week and into the weekend we should see lots of cold start to pour in if the ridge sets up near Alaska. We should also see the storms start to move in underneath the ridge.

We will continue to monitor the pattern change next week. If everything goest right we could see a barage of storms from around the 14th into the third week of the month. Stay tuned...BA

Pattern Change Looking More Likely Each Day

2011-12-31T21:35:00.000-08:00

The weather is going to remain pretty quiet over the next ten days but then we should start to see some changes. We will stay in the same pattern we have been in this week with the ridge off the coast keeping us dry. We may see few flakes on Friday with a storm brushing us to the North.

Then we look to week 2 where it looks like some major changes may happen in the pattern over the Pacific. Forecast models over the past few days have been consistent in ridge building out around 150w starting around the 10th. That would replace the ridge off the coast with a cold trough down the West Coast.

It is still too early to say that the pattern change is definite but it is looking better with each day. If the ridge sets up further out in the ocean near 150w it would allow Arctic air to pour down the West Coast and most likely bring some cold storms down the coast. The pattern we hope for is for the ridge to setup far enough North in the Pacific near the Aleutian Islands so that some better moisture can come under the ridge into the West Coast.

So for now we just have to enjoy the nice weather and wait about 10 days or so to see what the pattern change brings. BA

The Long Range is Looking Better

2011-12-29T20:29:00.000-08:00

We may actually see a flake of snow with the system brushing by to the North on Friday. Then the weather is quiet for the weekend and into the first half of next week with highs in the 40's.

The weather models are coming into some more agreement that we could pick up several inches from the storm next Friday. The ridge look like it will move East and opens the door to a storm briefly on Friday before the next ridge builds back in off the coast. The European forecast model is most aggressive with this storm and the GFS sees it too. Right now it looks like we could see a few inches of snow so we will watch the progress over the next several days.

So far this month we have been hoping that the strenthening jet stream in the Pacific would at times push far enough South to bring snow by flattening the ridge, or the ridge would pull away from the coast briefly. That is happening this week but the heavy precip is only making it as far South as Northern CA.

We need to get the ridge away from the coast and out North of Hawaii, and even better would be near the Aleutian Islands. There are a few things that looks like they could come together around the 2nd week of January. We will watch the ridge retrograding out towards Hawaii, then the cold building over Canada pushing South down the West Coast.

Today's GFS forecast model a blocking ridge forming again from the Aleutian Islands into Alaska and Northwest Canada. That would force the storm track South into California. We will watch to see if this pattern continues to develop over the next 10 days. If a block like that were to develop it could mean an extended period of storms and snowfall. Stay tuned. BA

A Few Chances for Snow

2011-12-28T19:53:00.000-08:00

We continue to make snow as the cold night temps allow as we wait for more snow from mother nature. This is only the first week of Winter so we have lots of Winter ahead.

The storm hitting the Pacific NW on Friday may bring a quick snow shower to the mountain. Next week the ridge will start to push further up the West Coast keeping the Tuesday storm to our North. Then there is quick retrogression of the ridge the middle of next week allowing the Friday storm to dig a bit further South.

The models have been taking turns showing this storm coming far enough South to bring snow. Today's Euro dug it far enough South to bring several inches of snow. We will have to continue to watch the possibility of a little snow over the next few days. It then looks like the pattern slows and the trough digs North of Hawaii.

Next week is when the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) enters the Western Pacific and we would expect to see the ridge start to pull away from the coast the following week in response. There is plenty of cold building over Alaska and Canada and that cold will pour into the trough South of the Aleutian Islands and the East Coast next week. Then we will watch for the ridge to shift out in the Pacific to a position between Hawaii and the Aleutian Islands. That will allow the cold to shift into the West.

We have been talking about this scenario possibly coming in January with the cold pushing down the West Coast from Alaska pushing the jet stream further South. The GFS as well as the European forecast models are showing the retrogression of the ridge away from the West Coast and out to 150w with a trough down the West Coast the second week of January. That would open up the storm door into the West coast.

We will continue to watch for the storms to return as we move towards the second week of Winter. BA

A Chance for a Little Snow Late Week

2011-12-27T19:32:00.000-08:00

We will have a very active weather pattern to our North this week. We will be right on the Southern edge of the storm track which means we could see a few flakes up top from the storms pushing by. The best chance will be on Friday with the storm dipping a bit further South.

For the most part this week the weather will be nice with highs in the 40's and lows in the 20's at night allowing for snowmaking at the bottom. There will be inversions up top with temperatures above freezing.

Next week there are 2 storms hitting to our North, one on Tuesday and the other on Friday. The first storm looks like it could brush us with a few flakes and the second storm for Friday looks like it could bring some measurable precip, maybe a few inches of snow.

The forecast models are struggling with the pattern in the long-range. Some of the runs bring the storm track further South the second half of next week and bring several storms into the second week of January. Other models keep the storms to our North a bit longer and then shifting the ridge back away from the coast and brining some colder storms in from the Northwest the second week of January.

Either way the pattern should continue to be more active and we will get some bigger storms in here in January. We will continue to watch and keep you updated on the first chance for a big dump. BA

The Pattern Is Changing...

2011-12-25T20:39:00.000-08:00

The snow guns continue to hammer out more terrain with the cold overnight temperatures with 29 trails open this weekend on all areas. We will continue to make more snow as temps allow and watch for when some more natural snow will arrive.

The forecast for the next 10 days keeps the ridge off the coast of CA but further South than it has been. This will open up the storm door to the Pacific NW bringing in lots of storm activity to Northern CA and it keeps us right on the Southern edge.As the storms move by to the North this week we could pick up a few snow showers on Wednesday and Friday but I'm not expecting more than a dusting on the mountain above 7000 ft. as of right now.

The ridge will shift out further West in the Pacific around the 1st and then the 5th of January to the North of Hawaii before quickly shifting back off the coast. This will allow the storms for the 2nd and 7th to shift further South which we have been watching for since it showed up last week. Right now though it looks like the brunt of the storms could stay just to the North of the area with only light amounts of snow but we will have to continue to watch.

Right now it's a +PNA pattern still which correlates with a ridge and dry conditions for CA. In a La Nina a -PNA pattern is more typical but it is not showing up yet in the forecasts. It should eventually though as the La Nina pattern takes over going into January.

Another factor that may not have helped this month is the position of the convection with the MJO. It was strong and progressing toward the Western Pacific at the beginning of the month and then just stopped at the edge of phase 5 in the Maritime Continent and has been sitting there all month.That is not in a good position for bringing snow to Tahoe as we would like to see it progress East into the Western Pacific.

It is forecasted to start moving again towards and through the Pacific over the next 2 weeks. The convection moving into the Western Pacific could mean the ridge beginning to retrograde back towards Hawaii the first week of January allowing storms to dig further South. The MJO tends to have a bigger affect on the pattern during a weak/moderate La Nina.

So there are no big storms showing up in the forecast quite yet, but the good news is that the pattern is changing to more of a La Nina pattern with the jet stream hitting just to the North. Now we just need to get rid of the ridge off the coast so the jet stream and storms can push further South. We will continue to watch for the PNA to go negative and for anything else that will help to get the storms into Tahoe. Keep the snow dances going. BA

Waitig on the Snow for Next Week

2011-12-23T19:30:00.000-08:00

The forecast models continue to show the possibility for some snow the middle of next week. The storm activity will greatly increase over the Pacific NW next week and we will watch for some of the storms to dip far enough South to bring us snow.

For now the temperatures continue to stay plenty cold enough to make snow and we continue to expand the terrain. There is a series of storms hitting the Pacific NW next week and the one for Wednesday looks like it could come further South and bring a few inches of snow to the mountain. We will have to continue to track this storm.

After that the storms continue just to our North. We may see another one come close to the area New Years weekend and then a couple of storms the first week of January. The teleconnection patterns are not favorable yet for an onslaught of big storms into CA. We may see that change in January. Until then we will continue to monitor the storms for next week and how much snow they may be able to sneak in here. BA

A Taste of Winter Next Week

2011-12-22T19:52:00.000-08:00

The pattern is going to change this weekend and we will see increased chances for some snow next week. Not a lot but hopefully enough to whiten the slopes once again. We will continue to watch the pattern for the breakthrough of the big storms in January.

The Pacific NW will start to get hit with multiple storms next week as the ridge off the coast shifts South opening the storm door to our North. As some of the stronger storms come in they may be able to push the ridge further South and make it into our area. There are a few chances next week of picking up a few inches.

The European weather model today suggested we could pick up a few inches from each of three storms next Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday. The Japanese model suggested the snow holds off until a slightly bigger storm next Friday. The GFS model suggests we pick up a few inches from the Wednesday storm.

The most snow showing up is up to 9 inches from the three storms combined down to getting a dusting. We will have to continue to watch the track of the storms over the weekend.

Then the first week of January the storms continue to the North. Previous forecast model runs suggested some bigger storms coming down into Tahoe. The most recent runs show a similar pattern as next week. The teleconnections are still not favorable for an onslaught of storms yet, but they are looking like they could switch going into January.

For now at least the pattern is changing and the storm track is moving closer. Stay tuned...BA

Snow Finally in the Forecast

2011-12-20T20:52:00.001-08:00

I mentioned in the last post that we could see some snow next week and things continue to look that is a possibility. We have been watching for a pattern change to show up as we head towards the end of December and it may begin to take shape this weekend. The snowmaking has been great but we would love nothing more than to get some natural snow to go on top.

Starting on Monday the storm train looks like it will begin to pull into the Pacific NW. That keeps us very close to the Southern edge of the storms and it won't take much of a shift to get the snow further South.Over the past couple of days the forecast models have been showing the storm coming in on Wednesday dipping far enough South to bring us some snow.

Right now it looks like it would be in the 3-6 inch range but it's too early to be looking at any totals yet. But the storm is there in the forecast so keep your fingers crossed it continues to push further South.

The active pattern will continue in the Pacific NW all next week and into the first week of January as the true Winter La Nina pattern really starts to kick in. That will keep the chances for the storms to track closer as we go into January. Right now the long-range forecast models are showing 2 possible bigger storms the first week of December, but take that with a grain of salt this far out.

The good news is that things are changing in the pattern and becoming more active. Keep your fingets crossed that the snow picks up going into the New Year. BA

A Little Action Possible Next Week....

2011-12-19T19:41:00.000-08:00

Although it has become apparent that the big snow action will hold off until January that doesn't mean we won't see any weather.

There is another shot of cold air coming in for Thursday but it won't be as strong as some of the other shots this month. It will only knock us down into the 30's for a day before we bounce back into the 40's through the weekend and into next week.

Next week the storm activity in the Pacific NW looks like it is really going to pick up. The storms will be not that far to our North so it won't take much for the ridge off the coast to shift back slightly and allow a storm to dip into California.

The forecast models are showing the possibility that the storm hitting the Pacific NW next Thursday could dip far enough South to bring in a little storm. It would not be a big storm but it could bring a few inches of snow to whiten the slopes again. We will have to watch this over the next week.

The bigger story still looks to be as we go into January. The forecast models continue to show a possible bigger storm just after the New Year. The teleconnections are showing that the first half of January could have quite a bit of cold pushing into the West Coast along with increased storminess. BA

Storms Starting to Show on Long-Range Forecast Models

2011-12-18T20:22:00.001-08:00

We continue blowing snow and opening new terrain with the cold temperatures at night. We will see continued dry weather this week as the ridge of high pressure stays anchored off the coast blocking all storm activity. We will have cold nights and cool days this week with lows in the teens and highs in the 40's, with inversions at the higher elevations.

We will see a little activity on Thursday when another shot of cold air drops into the Western U.S. just to our East. That trough did have the potential to bring a light dusting but it looks like it will now stay dry. We will see a little wind and colder temps for Thursday with highs only in the 30's. We will warm back into the 40's for the holiday weekend.

Next week looks quiet as well as the ridge off the coast pushes inland over CA. The pattern will begin to change next week as storms start to push into the Pacific NW up near Washington. As we go towards New Years the jet stream and storm track will start to push further South down the coast.

When looking out more than a week it is better to look at overall pattern and not a specific storm. The current pattern looks like it will continue to change going into the New Year. Looking at some of the teleconnection patterns over the Arctic it appears that some Arctic air will push down the Coast the begginning of January. That would also push the storm track South towards CA.

The forecast models are starting to show a storm around or just after the New Year. For now we will have to rely on snowmaking as we wait for the pattern change to take place. Stay tuned for continued updates as we watch for when the big snows will arrive. BA

Beautiful Weather Continues

2011-12-16T19:58:00.000-08:00

The weather over the next 10 day looks like it is going to remain pretty tranquil. The temperatures will be in the 30's on the mountain with lows in the 20's at night. The dry air actually makes for optimum snowmaking conditions. The natural snow will return as the tranquil weather can't last forever.

The forecast models are showing a pattern change starting to take place in about 10 days. The ridge of high pressure just off the coast has been pushing all of the storms up into Western Canada. The trough we need along the West Coast for snow has been centered up near the Aluetian Islands with the jet stream coming underneather into Wester Canada.

It looks like as we go into the last week of the month the trough may shift into the Gulf of Alaska. That would shift the jet stream further South down the coast into the Pacific NW. In the long-range the models are not as accurate, but they have been consistent in showing the ridge continuing to flatten the last week of the month with jetstream pushing further South and storm activity returning.

There is some stratospheric warming beginning to take place near the Arctic. If that continues towards the end of the month we should see an Arctic outbreak of cold push into the West. That could help to drive the trough down the West coast. I've never seen a snow drought last more than 6 weeks so we should see this pattern flip by the end of the month and going into January.

In Tahoe it only takes one week of the Westerlies breaking through and dumping on us to get us a significant snowpack. Stay tuned as we continue to monitor any signs of significant snowfall returning. Meanwhile enjoy the beautiful weather and fresh snow from the snow guns as we continue to expand terrain. BA

A Few Flakes

2011-12-14T19:42:00.000-08:00

There is weakening storm moving into Northwestern CA tonight. By the time the storm reaches Tahoe it should only have enough moisture left to bring only a dusting to the mountains. It will bring some more cold air though so the snow guns are really getting a workout.

The ridge is holding strong in the Eastern Pacific holding the storm track up into Western Canada. Activity will start to pick up in the Pacific NW next week with the ridge moving East before being quickly replaced by another ridge.That will happen several times next week allowing storms to sneak into the Northwest between each ridge.

Low pressure has been setting up over the Aleutian islands and Southern Alaska sending the jet stream underneath into Western Canada. Long-range models are suggesting that the ridge will start to retrograde West in the Pacific away from the coast the last week of the month. That would allow the low pressure and associated trough to shift into the Northeast Pacific sending the jet stream underneath into the West Coast.

The later we get into the month the more the chances increase that the pattern will shift towards a La Nina Cold PDO Winter pattern. Stay tuned....BA

Update on the Thursday Storm....

2011-12-13T20:21:00.000-08:00

The weak storm moving in to our North on Thursday was shown by todays forecast models to track a little further West down the Sierra. That increases our chances of seeing some snowfall.Even with this track the storm does not have that much moisture to work with and we should only see a few inches at best.

There will be some more cold air before temperatures moderate back into the 40's this weekend.Next week the pattern looks to stay pretty quiet. There will be a storm that hits the Pacific NW the middle of next week but that storm looks to stay to our North as the ridge stays off the coast continuing to block storms.

Christmas weekend the forecast models are showing the jet stream continuing to push further down the West Coast bringing the storm track closer to CA. There is the chance of a storm making its way down the coast around Christmas Day.

Long-range models are sugesting the last week of the month we could see a ridge replace the trough near the Aleutian Islands, and a trough replacing the ridge in the Eastern Pacific. This is the first time they have shown this possible setup in over a month. If that pattern shift takes place we would see the jet stream and storms finally blast into CA. Stay tuned...BA

Snowguns Getting The Work Done...

2011-12-12T20:03:00.000-08:00

We were hoping for a little snowfall here on Thursday to break the natural snow drought we have going on currently. Like a lot of the storms over the past few weeks this one is now trending further East and may not bring much if any snow on Thursday with the cold front. The good news is more cold air for continued Snowmaking.

Next week the pattern to our North up into the Pacific NW looks like it will become more active. That will give us the chance of getting a little light snowfall if the ridge pulls away from the coast the middle of next week and a storm can sneak in.

The pattern across the Pacific has had a strong East Asian jetstream extending into the Western Pacific. That has helped to keep pumping the ridge in the Eastern Pacific. As we head into the Winter the La Nina should cause the jetstream to weaken and retract allowing the ridge off the coast to retrograde Westward. That would allow the trough to build back into the Eastern Pacific an open the storm door.

For now we just have to wait for the pattern to shift. As we go later into the month the pattern should become more active as the ridge begins to flatten. Then hopefully we see the ridge shift Westward. Stay tuned for updates.....BA

Snow Still On Track...

2011-12-11T21:07:00.000-08:00

With the dry conditions over the past couple of weeks the light snow coming on Thursday seems like a big deal. A cold front moved through today bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air which will just lengthen the amount of hours in a day that snowmaking can continue.

Finally on Thursday as the next cold front comes in we will see some light snowfall. The forecast model runs from today were still showing around 3-6 inches of snowfall and then some more cold air behind the storm going into the weekend.

This is not the big dump of snow that we are looking for but it will be nice to see some natural snow fall on top of all the man-made snow. As we go into the following week things look to get more active in the Pacific NW. As long as storms are coming onshore up there some of the storms could drop in a little further South and bring us snow.

Looking long-term it looks like as we go towards the end of the month and into January blocking could begin to form near Alaska. That would suppress the jetstream further South and could finally mean a breakthrough of the Westerlies. Stay tuned....BA

Some Natural Snow This Week?

2011-12-10T20:47:00.000-08:00

There is a storm coming down the coast tomorrow that will stay to our West but will bring another shot of cold air. We have not been in short supply of cold air and that has combined with the large snowmaking system to create lots of snow. We have been able to open lots of trails that otherwise would not be open.

It is looking more likely now that the next storm on Thursday will bring us at least some snow. The storm will move in over the Pacific NW on Wednesday and then slide South. This time it looks like it will be further East and will come down over the Sierra or just East. If the current models pan out and the storm comes down over the Sierra we could pick up 3-6 inches of snow.

The ridge continues to try and build back in off the coast next weekend and into the following week. The storms however will be getting stronger and will try to take advantage of any retrogression or flattening of the ridge. We could see some more small storms sneak in.

We will continue to monitor the pattern for a breakthrough of the Westerlies and some big storms to finally start hitting the West Coast. Stay tuned....BA

More Cold and Another Miss

2011-12-09T21:44:00.000-08:00

We have seen quite a few splitting storms already this Fall and we will see one again this weekend. There has not been a shortage of cold especially at night to keep the snowmaking going. We will see another reinforcing shot of cold on Sunday as the next cold trough makes it way down the coast.

This trough will split as well with the low spinning down the coast and then coming inland to our South on Monday. It's another miss by a splitting storm and cut-off low down the coast to our West. We did pick up unexpected snow with the last cut-off low as it jumped inland at the last second. That is always a possibility with these storms.

The next chance at a little snow is a storm coming inland to our North the middle of next week. The forecast models are still varying with the track of this storm but it looks like it will stay mostly to our North. We could pick up a little light snow on the South side of the storm, and it will bring another shot of cold air.

As long as it stays cold the terrain will expand and eventually we will get some natural snow. Earlier this week it looked like the pattern could shift with the ridge off the coast flattening around the 18th and beyond. The pattern is beginning to slow down a little which will allow the ridge to continue to build further North a little longer.

Right now it looks like we may just be delayed a few days as the storms could start to move in around the 21st. Right now the pattern is not looking to setup for a long stretch of snowy weather. That is the pattern that is expected to take over towards the end of the month and into January. We'll just have to keep watching, keep the snow dances going. BA

07/08 All Over Again?

2011-12-08T19:44:00.000-08:00

That season we didn't see much snow at all in the Fall, even less than this year. Then in January we started with a superstorm right after New Year's and it didn't stop snowing for 2 months. This is another La Nina year of similar strength.

We will have rely on the snow guns for at least another 10 days, but at least we have plenty of them blowing lots of snow on the mountain. We will see a litle light snow on Sunday as the next cold front pushes down the coast from Canada, but nothing more than a dusting.

We have a chance at some more light snow next Wednesday as a storm hits the Pacific NW and we get the South side of the storm. We will have to watch and see how far South the precip comes, but it looks pretty light right now. With the cold air from both storms there will be plenty of good snowmaking conditions.

It would be nice to get some bigger storms but right now they look to hold off until at least the 18th. The pattern looks to get more progressive which could help in flattening the ridge off the coast and bringing the storms further South down the coast from the Pacific NW. This could happen the week leading up to Christmas.

We will have to continue monitoring this over the next week. Some of the models suggest that the pattern could stay slow enough to allow the ridge off the coast to build far enough North to keep the storms just to our North. The other models suggest a Southward shift of the jetstream bringing a return of stormy weather beginning around the 18th. BA

More Active Weather Beginning This Weekend

2011-12-07T20:07:00.000-08:00

We have been stuck with the ridge of high pressure off the coast now for 2 weeks keeping the storms away from CA. The good news has been the cold shots of air coming down from Canada that has allowed for good snowmaking conditions. Beginning this weekend and go forward the pattern should become more active with the chances for snow increasing.

There is not really anything in the overall weather pattern to create blocking or locking in a pattern over the next couple of weeks. We will see a very progressive pattern of troughs and ridges bringing the chance for snow with the troughs. This will be a nice change from the constant ridge we have had.

The ridge that has been sitting off the coast will shift East as another ridge forms further West in the Pacific around 160w this weekend. The ridge will then move East towards a position off the coast again, but in between we will see a cold trough dive down the coast Sunday and Monday.

The cold is for sure but the exact track of the wave that will split off of the trough is not. It looks like we will see some light snow Sunday night as the cold front moves through and then we will have to watch the low that splits off and comes down the coast. Some of the models bring it down to our West and then inland over Tahoe on Monday bringing more light snow and other bring it in to our South missing us.

It looks like the ridge will move back in the Pacific again the middle of next week allowing another storm to dive in from the Northeast Pacific on Thursday. This would bring a shot at slightly more snow. The latest GFS forecast model run showed the possibility of high pressure forming in the Gulf of Alaska and supressing the jetstream South with this storm which would bring a much bigger storm so we will have to watch that.

This progressive pattern looks to continue with more storms possible the weekend of the 17th and into the week before Christmas. As the jetstream continues to strengthen and the jetstream flattens across the Pacific the storms should pick up some more moisture and bring bigger snowfalls later in the month.

The good news is that the pattern will be turning more interesting. Chances of light snow beginning this weekend and chances for bigger snows the following weekend. Stay tuned....BA

Keep Spraying....

2011-12-05T20:17:00.000-08:00

We are lucky in this dry pattern that we at least have had plenty of cold air. Temps at night in the valleys have been dipping into the single digits. Northstar continues to expand the terrain while the other resorts wait on mother nature.That will continue to be the case this week as things stay quiet with the blocking ridge of high pressure anchored off the coast blocking us from storms.

As we go into the weekend and next week the pattern starts to move a little.It still looks like we won't see much snow next week but the ridge in the Pacific will begin to move around and let some storms into the Pacific NW.

This weekend the ridge will back up enough to allow the next cold shot to come down a little further West allowing the chance of a little bit of moisture to be picked up off the ocean creating some light snow.

Next week the ridge is still close enough to the coast to prevent any big storms but it looks like some decent snow will make it in to our North by the end of the week.

The big changes look to possiblly begin the week of the 19th right before Christmas as the ridge shifts further West in the Pacific. It also looks like the stronger jetstream will flatten it creating more of a zonal flow across the ocean. That will give the storms a more direct shot at the West Coast.

We will continue to watch the pattern change and watch for the first sign of a return to natural snow. BA

More Cold to Start the Week....

2011-12-04T19:39:00.000-08:00

Over the past week we have had a ridge of high pressure off the coast directing all storms to our North. The ridge has been far enough off the coast however to allow cold air trough to dig South from Canada into the Western United States. We would love some snow but the cold has allowed for continued snowmaking.

We will have another shot of cold air pushing in on Monday with nother cold air trough digging into the West. High temperatures in the 30's on Monday will rebound back into the 40's on Tuesday and through the rest of the week as the coldest air moves East. Nighttime temps will still stay cold.

We are waiting for ridge off the coast blocking the storms to shift Westward in the Pacific allowing the storms to come down the West Coast. Looking out to next weekend and beyond it looks like the ridge will shift back slightly in the Pacific allowing storms to come down closer to the coast. That will bring down more cold, but also a better chance at some snow as the closer to the coast the more moisture that can be drawn in off the ocean.

Looking at the jetstream forecast, this week it is being pushed way up and over the ridge towards Alaska. Next weekend the jetstream flattens and takes a more direct aim towards the West Coast. Right now it looks like going into week 2 the snow storms will increase to our North in the Pacific NW with some chances of light snow making it down here. As we go later into the month the jetstream and track of the storms should come further South.

Until then plenty of cold for snowmaking. BA

Snowmaking Is King....

2011-12-02T21:43:00.000-08:00

As high pressure off the West Coast continues to push the storm track up into Alaska and Canada we will have to rely on the snow guns a little longer. We are thankful that we have the largest snowmaking system in North Lake Tahoe to help us keep expanding terrain while we wait on Mother Nature.

Looking at the forecast models that pattern looks to cotinue for another week or two. In the meantime we will continue to get shots of cold and in between have seasonal temperatures.Those shots of cold will keep the snowpack in place and allow for continued snowmaking operations and terrain expansion.

This week the final Winter forecast came out from Accuweather.com. They continue to show us getting above average snowfall for the season even with the late start. It is not uncommon in Tahoe, especially in a La Nina year, for the snowfall to not really kick in until closer to Christmas.That should be the case this season. We should see the snowfall begin to pick up as we get past mid-month and hed into true Winter.

My forecast for the season in Tahoe based on the history of La Ninas with similar strengths to this one is that we will pick up around 105% of average snowfall. Northstar California averages 350 inches of snow per season which is still a nice amount of snow for any resort.

With slightly above average snowfall expected this season it could mean we break the 400 inch mark for the 4th season in a row. Although we are off to a slow start here in December it will come soon enough. BA

Fire Up the Guns....

2011-11-30T19:52:00.000-08:00

The cold front blasted through today and now it is cold. The highs on the mountain tomorrow will be in the 20's which means around the clock snowmaking. Temperatures will stay cold through the weekend.

We are going to be in the cold dry pattern here for a little while so we will make the best of the cold and watch the terrain expand. We have a second shot of some colder air on Saturday and then it will warm slightly into the 40's to start next week.

We will stay in a similar pattern next week with another cold trough coming down from Canada around mid-week bringing more cold and possibly some light snow. That pattern will continue with consecutive shots of cold into the following weekend.

In order to get some snow into CA we are waiting for the pattern to change. Currently there is a large area of high pressure spinning off the Pacfic NW coast sending storms coming across the Pacific ocean up into Alaska and Canada. This is common in a positive PNA (Pacific North American) teleconnection pattern which we are currently in.

Forecasts continue to show the PNA trending back towards negative around mid-month which would favor a trough off the West Coast and opening the storm door. Right now we will have to wait and watch the pattern evolve.

Looking at the forecast models they do show the ridge of high pressure in the Pacific shifting back from 130w in the Pacific to 140w by the 7th and then 150w by the 12th. The further back the ridge moves the easier it is for storms to drop down off the West Coast and then into CA. If the ridge moves back past 150w then the storm door really starts to open.

Right now it looks like things will become more favorable for snowfall beyond mid-month. I would expect that as the jetstream continues to strengthen in the Pacific it will push further South down the Coast. The closer we get to true Winter the more snow that should begin to make its way into Tahoe.

Dont' forget that some of the bigger snowfall seasons in history didn't start until January. 07-08 comes to mind as a recent season that didn't see much snow until January and then had above average snowpack by February. BA

Big Cold on the Way....

2011-11-29T19:54:00.000-08:00

We have a cold trough diving down from the North into the Western half of the country on Wednesday. This is a dry track for storms but it will make it feel a lot like Winter outside.

The good news is that the high temperatures will only be in the 20's by Thursday allowing for around the clock snowmaking. That will allow for lots of terrain expansion over the next several days.

There will be more shots of cold and chances for a little light snow over the next two weeks. For now we will have to rely on snowmaking as the pattern has a huge high pressure stuck off the West coast blocking storms. It still looks like the pattern may change around mid-month.

Some of the long-range models are showing the storm door beginning to open around mid-month. Once it does there should be quite a bit of snowfall going into the Winter. There is more details on the long-range forecast below. BA

The Big Snows Will Come....

2011-11-28T20:45:00.000-08:00

With the ridge off the West Coast blocking storms the next couple of weeks the good news is that there will be some shots of cold and light snow. The first being Wednesday night into Thursday and another one to start the following week.

This will be more cold than snow right now but there are signs that the pattern will flip in December. This Winter is still on track to bring big snows. Once the Snow starts it should come in earnest and last a while.

Looking at the temperatures in the Pacific they are not helping with the current pattern of the ridge in the Northeast Pacific. Earlier this Fall we saw warmer than average temperatures along and just off of the CA coast. The ocean temps between here and Hawaii are now colder than this time last year.

With the current pattern it means the water is too cold to support a Southern branch of the jetstream to come underneath of the ridge. But as we go into the Winter the sinking air over the cold water along the subtropical waters will favor troughing off the West Coast. That combined with warmer than average water temps in the Western Pacific strengthening the jetstream should mean the perfect ingredients for lots of snow in the Winter months.

First, we need to get the ridge to retrograde back away from the West Coast. Right now the positive PNA pattern is supporting the ridge off the coast blocking the storms. We need the PNA to go back negative which supports trough along the West Coast. During La Nina conditions the negative phase of the PNA is supported so we should see it more than not going into the Winter. The current forecasts show it possibly going negative around mid-December.

The other thing that can pull the ridge back and bring a period of enhance precip to the West Coast is the MJO when it enters the Western Pacific. The MJO is actually getting pretty strong in the Indian Ocean as it progresses towards the Maritime Continent. As it moves into the Western Pacfic over the next couple of weeks it should begin to help pull back the ridge.

So although we have quiet weather for the next couple of weeks things are definitely lining up for Winter to possibly begin for real later in the month.

Stay tuned...BA

Cold Shot On the Way....

2011-11-27T06:41:00.000-08:00

Unfortunately there won't be a lot of snow to talk about this week but there will be some good things happening in the weather. We have the largets snowmaking system in North Lake Tahoe so cold air can be almost as good as a big storm.

The nice weather will continue through Wednesday before a strong cold front pushes South out of Canada. By Thursday and Friday highs wont' get out of the 30's on the mountain. There is a chance of light snowfall as the front pushes through on Thursday. The cold air will allow for increased snowmaking and trail expansion.

The quiet weather resumes next weekend before another shot of cold air and light snowfall is possible to start the following week.

Right now we are in a +PNA teleconnection pattern which favors a ridge in the West. During a +PNA the ridge will sit North of Hawaii and a trough near the Aleutian islands. That sends the storms coming across the Pacfic up into Alaska and then down into British Columbia. What it can do like this week is bring the cold down the West Coast but the storms are dry by the time they reach us.

We will be watching for a flip of the PNA back to negative in December. We have a La Nina in place this season which favors a -PNA. That is good news for us as we get closer to true Winter. Until then we will have shots of cold air with light snowfall and plenty of snowmaking. BA

Cold and Possible Snow Midweek?

2011-11-25T19:45:00.001-08:00

It is a beautiful weekend on the mountain with sun and nice temps. We have some cold air at night for continued snowmaking, but we could have a reinforcing shot with possible light snow later this week.

The ridge is building in strong over the West and will dominate our Weather over the next several days. There are a few good signs in the weather though for the upcoming week, but big snow is not quite on the horizon yet.

As we go through next week the ridge of high pressure sitting over the Rockies will begin to shift West towards the West Coast as a trough and storm dive into the East. By Wednesday the ridge should be offshore in the Pacific which will still block storms from coming in off the ocean, but it will open the path for cold and light snow to come down from Canada.

On Thursday it looks like a cold airmass will push down into the West from Canada and bring light snowfall down through the Rockies to our East. Several of the weather models show the possibility of a piece of energy breaking off and forming a low pressure near Tahoe. That low could bring light snowfall Thursday and Friday before pushing East next weekend.

The following week looks similar with the possibity of another strong cold air mass pushing down through the West. We need the ridge to move further off the coast so that these cold fronts can come further West and tap moisture from off the ocean. It is possible but it's harder to do when we have a positive PNA (Pacific North American) teleconnection pattern.

We are hoping that the PNA goes back negative soon which it should since a La Nina favors a negative PNA. Also as we get closer to Winter the jetstream will continue to get stronger and push further down the coast. The AO (Arctic Oscillation) is also trending negative. That would help to displace the cold in the Arctic Southward which in turn can push the jetstream further South down the coast.

We also need to watch the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) as it continues to strengthen in the Indian Ocean. We want it to push through the Western Pacific while strong so that it can pull the ridge back from the coast or send the jetstream underneath the ridge into CA. You can monitor all these teleconnections here.

Until then keep tuning in and keep thinking and praying for snow. I believe that once it returns it will return in a big way with the stronger than normal La Nina jetstream this Winter. BA

Happy Thanksgiving....

2011-11-24T10:00:00.000-08:00

We could see a flake or two on the mountain today as the cold front pushes through with a lack of moisture. The sun will be out for the rest of the weekend with highs in the 40's on the mountain and lows in the 20's at night. Temperatures at night should allow for snowmaking at the lower elevations while we could inversions develop this weekend for the upper half of the mountain.

It is going to be a quiet week weather wise with sun and highs in the 40's on the mountain most of the week and in to the 50's in the Village. We are entering a postive PNA (Pacific North American) teleconnection pattern which producing ridging along the West Coast and blocks out storms for a little while.

The good news is that we have La Nina conditions which favors a negative PNA pattern and troughing along the West Coast, so the quiet weather shouldn't last for too long. Looking at the weather for week 2 it appears that the ridge is going to really build Northward all the way up into the Gulf of Alaska forming a block and keeping the storms up into Alaska and Canada.

Some weather models show the ridge a little further West which would drive some of that Arctic air from Alaska down the West Coast. That would also bring the chance of light snow and very cold air starting around next weekend, so we will have to watch that.

Another thing that is possible when there is high pressure blocking in the gulf of Alaska is that sub-tropical jetstream can come underneath into the West Coast. Right now there really isn't a sub-tropical jet to do that, but the wild card can be the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) that can create psuedo El Nino conditions for about a week when it moves through the Pacific and is strong enough. Right now it is strengthening in the Indian Ocean as it circles the globe.

We will have to watch it as it moves towards the Western Pacific over the next 2 weeks. I will also be watching the Arctic Oscillation as the forecast is for it to go negative in December. That would aid in displacing the cold air in the Arctic Southward into the U.S. Last year we saw a coupling of that and the jetstream coming under the Pacific ridge more than once for a months worth of snow in a week. Stay tuned....BA

Light Dusting for Thanksgiving, Then Man-Made Weather....

2011-11-22T18:47:00.000-08:00

Not much has changed from yesterday's post. The ridge is building in over the Rockies and the storms hitting the West Coast will hit brick wall as they hit the back side of the ridge.

We should see some light snow on the mountain for Thanksgiving with maybe a light dusting of snow. As we go into the weekend the ridge strengthens and some quiet weather moves in for a week or two.

The ridge will move back more over CA with time and then just offshore. As cold troughs drop down to our East they will send in shots of colder air. Highs will be in the 40's and lows in the 20's at night. That will allow North Lake's largest snowmaking system to be able to expand more terrain.

I will continue scrutinizing the global pattern and looking for the next change in the pattern to stormy. BA

Splitting To Pieces.....

2011-11-21T20:32:00.000-08:00

Back to back storms over the weekend dropped 16 inches of snow on the mountain and with cold air behind the storm the snow guns continue to blow. The pattern remains active with several more storm taking aim at the West coast this week. But this time the ridge to our East is strenthening and it looks more and more like it will split the storms as they push into CA.

When storms split the jetstream dives South trying to get around the ridge to the East and as it does so it takes with it the dynamics needed to produce snow. Over the past couple of weeks it appeared as if we may see several strong storms this week. The storms are still there and the conditions in the Pacific are perfect to bring the chance of big storms. But the ridge to the East is becoming stronger than forecasted.

The storms will basically be stopped dead in their tracks right before hitting us. With each run of the weather models the storms look weaker. Just to the North along the CA coast there will be heavy rainfall. The complete verdict is not in yet as it never is until the storm with these split flow scenarios so we'll watch closely as the storms approach.

We should see an increase in clouds on Wednesday with some light snowfall possible Wednesday night into Thanksgiving Day. Right now it looks like a couple of inches at best. There is another storm for Thursday night that looks like it will stay just to our North. Behind that is a final storm for next Sunday. Right now it looks as if that storm will stay just to our North as well, but it could come far enough South to bring us some light snowfall.

After that it looks like the weather could quiet down into the first week of December. It should still be cold enough at night for snowmaking and terrain expansion. We may see a shot of colder air that week as a storm slides down to our East. BA

Over a Foot?

2011-11-20T17:11:00.000-08:00

Northstar picked up another 4 inches Saturday night bringing the storm total up to 11 inches. That was as of 5 a.m. and some of the heaviest snow of the storm came through this morning after that. It was the 2nd day of the 3 day season with fresh powder.

There was a line of heavier snow that sat over Northstar for most of the morning so I'm expecting the totals to be easily over a foot when we get the official 24 hour measurement Monday morning. Not a bad little storm, especially since it wasn't forecasted to do much originally.

We will warm up a little and dry out to start the week. It will sill be plenty cold enough at night to make snow and expand the terrain. There will be high pressure building in over the Southwestern US as the next storm approaches the coast by midweek. That is going to cause the next storm to slow down and then split with the heaviest precip going to our South.

The total liquid with the storm for Thanksgiving Day continues to look a little less but still enough to bring us some light snowfall. There is another wave of moisture that will come in Thursday night into Friday that should continue the light snowfall. Not expecting significant accumulations but possibly several inches on the mountain.

The ridge really tries to grow into next weekend to our South as another storm heads for the West Coast. The ridge looks like it may push the track of that storm up into Western canada as we get the Southern edge. That would mean possibly a little more light snowfall next Sunday.

After that things look to quiet down as the ridge keeps the storms to our North to end the month and start December. Still should be plenty cold at night to continue making snow and opening more trails. BA

More Snow tonight and Sunday....

2011-11-19T18:34:00.000-08:00

We picked up 7 inches at the summit and 5 inches at the base from the Friday night storm. That was right in line with the forecasted amounts for the storm. Today was cold and the snow guns continued to fire on top of the fresh snowfall.

All week I have been saying that there was a second storm coming down the coast over the weekend and that it would miss to the West of us and only bring maybe a snow shower or two. Today the storm track shifted East a little, just enough to put us on the Eastern edge of the storm.

That means snow will move back in again tonight and continue into the day on Sunday. Looking at the total liquid that should make it into our area the snowfall amounts should be fairly close to what we got from the first storm. So expect that by Sunday afternoon we may have doubled the snowfall and have a weekend total of around 10-14 inches on the mountain.

The storm for Thanksgiving continues to look like it is going to split into two with the first wave going South of us on Thursday. We should still see light snowfall amounts from the Northern half of the storm. A second wave will come onshore to our North and bring continued light snowfall on Friday.

With the Thanksgiving storm clearing the way the next storm for Sunday the 27th should have a clear path and has the potential to bring us some significant snowfall. Stay tuned because if the Thanksgiving Day storm holds together and doesn't split it too could bring a decent amount of snow.

After the holiday weekend it looks like things could quite down for a little bit going into the first week of December as the ridge builds back off the coast and the East Coast finally gets a turn. BA

Fresh Tracks.....

2011-11-18T19:42:00.000-08:00

Snow showers began this evening and will continue overnight. There will also be quite a bit of cold air coming behind the cold front, so temperatures behind the front tonight will drop down into the teens. That is making the snow very light and powdery on the mountain.

The storm weakened slightly as it came onshore and the cold front didn't bring a solid burst of heavy snow. Instead the snow has been showery with some heavier bursts of snow. I am now expecting 1-3 inches at the base and 3-6 inches at the summit by Saturday morning.

We begin to dry out on Saturday and it stays cold over the weekend with highs only in the 20's Saturday and 30's on Sunday and lows in the teens. There is an area of low pressure cut-off from the main flow moving down off the coast over the weekend. Almost all of the weather models keep it off shore but the Euro keeps showing it coming down over land and bringing us a few more inches of snow. That scenario is not likely but we will have to keep our eyes on it over the weekend.

Things are quiet to start next week with temperatures warming back up into the 40's. The high pressure ridge out in the Pacific is going to retrograde back out to around 150-160w which will allow the trough to dig off the West Coast. A large area of low pressure is going to setup in the Northeast Pacific and drive a cold front and strong jet towards the West Coast. This has been advertised by the models for a while now and it makes sense with the position of the teleconnections.

There will be a strong storm approaching the West coast on Thanksgiving bringing snowfall but a few model runs have hinted as a possible splitting. This can happen when the ridge to our East over the Rockies is a strong one and hard to move. The storms will sometimes split as they hit the back of the ridge. The GFS did show this but today is back on track showing the strong jetstream making a direct hit on us. Either way we should be picking up snow but a split could turn a couple feet into a couple inches.

Right behind the Thanksgiving day storm is another strong storm that would not split since it is right on the heels of the first storm. This storm should push in sometime on Sunday and bring us more cold and snow. Stay tuned because the potential exists for these two storms to bring significant snowfall over the 4 day holiday period and I will be trying to fine tune the track and snowfall amounts all week. BA

Cold Powder.....

2011-11-17T03:43:00.000-08:00

The strong cold front to our North will continue to work its way down the coast today. Tomorrow it will push through the area bringing plenty of cold air and a period of heavy snow. Behind the front we should be able to make snow around the clock all weekend.

Not much has changed with the amount of precip expected from this storm for Friday. By Friday night I am expecting 2-4 inches in the Village, 3-6 inches at the base lodge and 4-8 inches at the summit. Temperatures will be cold so this will be a light snow. Friday night temperatures drop into the teens so any leftover snow showers will add and inch or two of super light powder.

Things begin to clear out on Saturday and Sunday but highs won't make it out of the 20's. That means around the clock snowmaking will be possible. It's quieter and slightly warmer into the 40's for Monday and Tuesday ahead of the next stronger storm working its way towards us for Wednesday and Thursday. Models have been hinting at the possibility the storm splits. Let's hope that is not the case. If it holds together it should be the biggest storm so far this season.

After that it looks like we may have one more storm for the following weekend before things quiet down for little while to start December.

Stay tuned......BA

Update on the Opening Day Storm....

2011-11-15T17:00:00.000-08:00

Northstar closed with a fresh powder day in April and now it looks like we will open with one on Friday. Things are still on track for cold storm to push through the area with the snow beginning to to fall during the day on Friday. This isn't a big storm but it should be enough to bring several inches.

Looking at the latest weather models they show anywhere from .25 - .75 inches of liquid by the time the precipitation ends Friday night. That should equate to 3-6 inches at the base and 6-9 inches up top by Saturday morning.

It will stay cold through the weekend with lows in the teens and highs only in the 20's on the mountain. That will allow for lots of snowmaking to expand terrain. We will warm slightly on Monday and Tuesday ahead of a much bigger storm for Thanksgiving.

Stay tuned....BA

On Track for a White Thanksgiving Feast.....

2011-11-14T17:51:00.000-08:00

The weather has become a little bit more mild this week with temps into the 40’s on the mountain, but the cold temperatures at night have still allowed for snowmaking to continue. It still looks like we will have some fresh snow for opening weekend and then we could get a lot of snow for Thanksgiving weekend. The global teleconnection patterns are setting up nicely and the ridge of high pressure out in the Pacific is set to begin its shifting back from 140w towards 150w and then further out to 160w next week. That will broaden the trough off the West Coast and open the door to some bigger storms.

The first storm that will get us started is associated with the strong cold front and it is set to move on Friday. Over the past 24 hours though the weather models have developed a second storm that is dropping down out of the Gulf of Alaska behind the first one. This storm looks like it will kick the first one inland over Washington or Oregon not allowing it to come further down the coast. The further down the coast it comes the more moisture it can draw in off the ocean into our area. The GFS weather model shows a slightly drier scenario with the low coming in over Washington while the Euro model is wetter with the low coming in over Oregon.

The second storm responsible for pushing the first one inland is then projected to come down off the coast and then come inland just to our South. The total precipitation through Saturday averaged out across all the weather models is around .25 - .75 inches of liquid. This is a cold storm so snow ratios will increase a bit Friday night. Currently it looks like a few inches are possible in the Village with several inches possible up on the mountain. We still have a few days here to watch the exact track and how much moisture the storm can pull in.

As we go into next week the pattern looks become more established and more favorable as the Pacific ridge shifts further West in the Pacific allowing the trough to broaden off the West Coast. Meanwhile a huge low moves into the Gulf of Alaska which would drive a cold front towards the West Coast and send the jetstream into CA around Wednesday or Thursday of next week. I have been watching the global teleconnection forecasts point to this for a while now and the weather models have been showing it since last week. When patterns like this setup in the Sierra they have been known to bring several feet of snow.

The pattern looks to hold for about a week with more big storms possible going into the final weekend of the month. The pattern will also remain cold so behind each storm snowmaking should continue. All this points to a continued growth of the base and the terrain over the next couple of weeks. BA

Powder for Opening Weekend....

2011-11-12T20:10:00.001-08:00

Not to many changes in the forecast for the next couple of weeks as we just have to wait about 6 more days until the snow flies. After the cold front pushes through tonight bringing maybe a snow shower we will have a flat ridge keeping all the activity to our North until Friday. The snow continues to fly out of the snow guns however as we have had plenty of cold air at night. We should be on track for opening day and day 2 should be a powder day.

I have been alluding to the pattern change that will begin on Friday for a while now. Everything is lining up for us as far as the global teleconnections and the setup in the Pacific. The MJO Madden Julian Oscillation is in phase 7 as it moves through the Western Pacific. It will be going into phase 8 then 1 this week. Phase 1 in November usually means a cold trough along the West coast. Add in the -PNA Pacific North American teleconnection and we have what we need to have the ridge out to the North of Hawaii opening the door to cold storms to drop down the West Coast.

There will be a strong cold trough digging down the West coast towards the end of the week and it should begin to pushing into our region by Friday night. As the main low slowly works its way down the coast we will have to see how much moisture it can draw in from off of the Pacific. The air associated with the trough is cold and the ocean temps are still fairly warm, so we should see an ok moisture tap.

Right now it's too early to talk snowfall amounts, but currently the models don't show a ton of moisture. With the cold air though and forecasts for and inch of liquid plus over the weekend we could be measuring it in feet not inches. In these situations with the low slowly working down the coast and really cold air pouring in, we tend to get continuous snow showers from the orographics of the cold NW flow behind the cold front, and sometimes the snow can start to pile up.

We will have to continue to keep an eye on the first storm for next weekend. That is not the end as that should just be the start of the 7-10 period of a series of cold storms diving into the West Coast. The first storm next weekend could be the weakest and just be the one opening the door. There is another storm diving into the Pacific NW Tuesday and again around Thanksgiving or the day after. Looking at the long-range models it looks as if the storms get progressivel stronger as the pattern sets in.

This pattern of the -PNA and the trough along the West Coast should be the signature of this upcoming Winter. If this pattern continues to develop here for the second half of November though we may have another great start to the season. BA

A Miss this Weekend But Thanksgiving Could be White

2011-11-10T10:20:00.000-08:00

The track of the storm off the coast continues to be further and further South down the coast before coming inland this weekend. The cold front dropping down the West Coast for this weekend has been trending more North and East of us. That means that basically the two storms are going to circle us with precip and leave us dry in the middle. We should see clouds and maybe some light snow showers on Sunday and Monday but nothing more than a dusting to a couple of inches on the mountain.

The good news is that the cold air will be reinforced so temperatures will continue to be in the 40’s during the day and the 20’s at night into next week. With the cold temps at night the snowmaking will continue on the mountain.

Next week the weather models are in agreement that the ridge of high pressure out in the Pacific will shift slightly East, just enough to keep the trough along the West Coast from digging far enough South to bring us any storms. It should stay cool however and this is just the pattern evolving into what should be a series of storms with the biggest being around Thanksgiving.

Taking a look at the long-range global teleconnection forecasts for the next two weeks things seem to be falling into place for the perfect pattern to get some storms in here starting the end of next week. The weather models do show a reaction in the pattern as the ridge in the Pacific looks like it is going to retrograde out to a position just South of the Aleutian Islands by next weekend.

What that all means is that the trough will be able to dig down the West coast and with a nice wavelength the door will be open to bigger storms. Currently the long-range models have a storm or two for next weekend of moderate size and then a bigger one for Thanksgiving. Although the models have been all over the place the past couple of weeks, they have been very consistent all week on the pattern for the week of Thanksgiving. Keep your fingers crossed that this forecast holds. BA

The Storm Door Stay Open, But How Far?

2011-11-08T20:35:00.000-08:00

With cold nights and some fresh snow on the slopes the snow guns continue to fire here at Northstar. We have a few changes here for the weekend forecast but the storm door stays open so cold and snow in some fashion looks to be in the foreseen future.

The weather models have been all over the place the past 2 days trying to get a handle on a cut-off low spiraling down off the West Coast. The consensus seems to be that the cut-off low will come in to our South on Friday and Saturday with most of the precip missing us just to the South. We should see clouds as the storm goes by on Friday and Saturday and maybe a few flakes on the mountain.

The next storm dives down the coast on Sunday and models have been struggling with the track of this storm as well. In the weather pattern we are currently in the track of the storms down the coast will make a huge difference. With the high pressure ridge out in the Pacific around 150w 40n the storms go up and over the ridge into the Gulf of Alaska and then down the East Side of the rigde along the West coast. If they come down just over land then we get cold and maybe light amounts of snow. If they come down over water just offshore then they pick up moisture and bring heavier snowfall.

With the ridge out as far as it is in the Pacific and looking at the global teleconnection forecasts I have felt like the track should be further West over water. The models however have been trending towards a more over land track with the storm staying to our North and East. That would mean just some colder air and light snow showers for Sunday and Monday.

The European weather model then keeps the cold and unsettled weather digging slowly down the West Coast with some more light snow events for next Wednesday and again Friday. The Japanese model agrees but the GFS model shows the ridge in the Pacific shifting slightly East, just enough to keep any precip to our North and East. The Euro tends to have a better track record in the long-range this time of year.

Looking into the super long-range it makes more sense to look at the global teleconnection forecasts rather than the inconsistent weather models. What is interesting to watch is the movement of the MJO or Madden Julian Oscillation teleconnection as it continues to strengthen as it moves through the Maritime Continent on its way towards the Western Pacific. It is forecasted to be in the Western Pacific next week. In November, history shows that about a week after the MJO enters the Wester Pacific it means cold and snow for the West Coast.

That combined with the PNA or Pacific North American teleconnection staying in its negative phase it should mean that the storm door stays open through Thanksgiving. The MJO in the Western Pacific should help the jetstream juice up and so with the storm door open the odds increase of having a bigger storm roll in the week of the 20th. What is interesting is that the weather models have been in good agreement and consistent the past several days for the week of the 20th. They show a storm digging down the West coast again for a Sunday the 20th and then a bigger storm around Thanksgiving.

Stay tuned for updates.....BA

Cold & Snowy Pattern to Resume Next Weekend...

2011-11-06T14:00:00.000-08:00

We ended up getting less snow than forecasted as the cold front fell apart as it hit the Sierra. There were no good orographics and we basically just got some light snow showers. We picked up an inch or two at the base and maybe 3-4 inches up top. Good news is that the snow guns continue to crank.

Snow Showers will continue today with cold temperatures in place but only expecting light accumulations. We will stay cold through Tuesday with highs only in the 30's and lows in the teens at the base and the 20's up top. Snowmaking should continue in full force.

Then as a cut-off lows spins down the coast it will draw up some warmer air Wednesday and Thursday with temps up into the 40's and close to 50 in the Village on Thursday. We are going to continue to play this back and forth game with the cut-off low as today all the models bring it into Southern CA as a miss to us.

I think that we still have plenty of fun ahead without the cut-off so lets just pretend that it doesn't exist for now and look at the pattern next weekend. We have another cold storm diving down the coast bringing lots of cold air and this one has the potential to tap some decent moisture from off the ocean. It's less than what we saw yesterday with the possible merge with the cut-off, but if it comes down over water instead of land we could measure in feet not inches.

Either way it looks like another cold and snowy weekend on tap for next weekend. The ridge looks like it will continue to sit out North of Hawaii and it's stuck there with the ridge in the East and the ridge in Asia. The PNA forecast stays negative as well so I think that we are stuck in this cold and snowy pattern until about Thanksgiving.

Like I said with my winter forecast the main highlight of this winter should be cold and that cold will fluff our snow giving us the possibility of breaking the average snowfall. But that means lots of fluffy powder so although we will get lots of cold and some snow here in November it really won't help with base building. It should mean that there is plenty of snowmaking to be open on time, but i wouldn't suggest going in the trees just yet.

Looking at the super long-range we should see more cold storms drop down the coast with one the week of the 13th and another by the following weekend and the next right before Thanksgiving. So for now cold and snowy is the word for November. There are no really big storms on the horizon though, I think those will hold off until Winter. Once we hit January and February we should see this same sort of pattern but with colder air and bigger storms.
Stay tuned.....BA

Round 2....

2011-11-05T07:43:00.000-07:00

Since the mountain isn't open yet we have not received the official snowfall from yesterday's storm. Estimating from webcams I would say we picked up around 8 inches at the base lodge and close to a foot at the summit.

Just as the skies are clearing from the first storm the clouds are approaching for storm number 2. We should see the snow begin falling this evening and continue overnight. Snow showers may linger into the day on Sunday. I am expecting that we pick up similar totals from what we saw with the first storm. That means we should have close to a foot for a 3 day total at the base and 18 inches or more at the summit.

The ridge that has been sitting out in the Pacific around 150w 40n is going to surge North and cut off the next storm that is approaching from the jetstream. That will create a cut-off low that will spiral down the West coast during the week. The question has been when and where does this low come inland. I could get you excited one day and disappointed the next as the models change their mind becuase since these storms are cut off from the main flow and nothing is steering them it's almost impossible to forecast their path.

Currently we have a split decision with the GFS currently bringing the low into Southern CA and missing us and the Euro and Japanese models bringing it in to Central CA. We just have to wait and watch this very closely. The when seems clearer as there is another cold front and weak storm very similar to the ones this weekend dropping down the coast next weekend that will push the cut-off low inland starting Friday. So if the current GFS is right and the low comes in to the South we just get more cold and light snow. If some other runs of the GFS from yesterday and the other models are right then we could have a merge of the cut-off low, which will have a lot of moisture by then, and the cold front from the North right over Tahoe next weekend.

If that happens we could be talking 2-3 feet of snow, but PLEASE don't say BA said we're are getting 2-3 feet next weekend. It could be a total miss but it could also come together just right like the Euro is showing and the Euro has a better track record in the long-range during the Fall. I will be tracking this closely all week.

After next weekend the ridge is forecasted to stay out around 150w. You can see up top and on the sidebar that the teleconnections stay favorable for a Western trough with the -PNA and the MJO looping around into the Western Pacific. The shots of cold with light snowfall pattern could continue into the 3rd week of the month. While all of this is happening we should be continuing to make snow so opening day is looking good right now.

Stay tuned.....BA

A Taste of January....

2011-11-03T19:38:00.000-07:00

The cold front with the associated low off the coast is going to blast through the Tahoe Basin this evening. Based on the latest model run showing a bit more liquid the snowfall forecast may need to bump up slightly from yesterday. It looks more like 3-5 inches in the Village, 4-6 inches at the base lodge, and 6-10 inches at the summit.

Plenty of cold air behind the front with highs only in the 30's on Friday and down into the teens Friday night. That will make for some great snowmaking on top of the fresh snow through the weekend.

The next storm is set to drop in on Saturday and bring another round of cold of snow. The snow amounts will be similar to the first storm so we should double down on the totals. Temps will stay cold through Monday until warming a little Tuesday ahead of the next approaching storm.

The storm for the middle of next week is looking to become cut off from the main flow and may sit off the coast for a couple of days. A subsequent storm to our North the end of next week will help to push the low inland over CA. We will have to watch the exact track of this low. If it comes in directly over Tahoe it could mean a nice shot of more snow.

Stay tuned.......BA

Storm Update....

2011-11-02T20:15:00.000-07:00

Another taste of Winter is upon us. We have several days starting tomorrow of cold and snowy weather. The cold is going to outrank the snow with these storms as it will feel like mid-winter.

The first storm will arrive tomorrow afternoon. The latest models show the main low staying a bit further off the coast today. That means that the moisture will be a little less and the push over the Western Sierra crest will not be as strong. But with the cold temperatures the moisture that does fall will be fluffed and will accumulate more than it would with warmer temps.

Right now it looks like around 1-3 inches in the Village, 2-4 inches at mid-mountain, and 3-6+ inches up top. The snow will taper off on Friday but it will stay cold into the weekend with highs only in the 30's and lows in the teens. That means that snowmaking should continue.

The next storm is very similar to the first and should arrive Saturday night into Sunday. I am expecting the same snow amounts with this second storm. That means total 4 day accumulations of 6-12 inches at the summit and 3-6 inches in the Village.

We warm a little to start next week as another storm approaches by mid-week. Right now it looks as if this storm is going to split with a piece dropping down off the coast and the other staying to our North. We will have to monitor the track over the next few days as a few model runs suggested the storm stays together and brings us some more snow.

After that things look to get milder and quieter as we head towards mid-month. The cold trough will move into the East and the ridge will build back in off the coast keeping storms up into Canada. Stay tuned for updates....BA

It's That Time Again......

2011-11-01T06:00:00.000-07:00

It's November 1st and it's time to start up the weather discussions for another exciting season. We have some weather to talk about right off the bat.

There is a cold and snowy pattern coming up starting tomorrow and lasting about a week. I have been watching this pattern change coming and you will feel it when you walk outside tomorrow, and then see it on Thursday.

The first part of this change will be the colder air from the first cold front moving in tonight. Highs will only be in the 40's for the next two days. Then with the ridge out near 150w we will have a few cold lows drop down the coast bringing us snow. Snow levels will be well below lake level through the period and it looks like 3 possible storms. The first coming in on Thursday and then another for Saturday and then the final one the middle of next week.

None of the storms have much moisture, but with this first one the air is so cold that we will get some help from the high snow:water ratios. Right now it looks like around .25-.5 inches of liquid but with temps dropping down to 20 degrees or lower Thursday night we could see 20:1 snow ratios or better. So that means 5-10 inches are possible above up top where it's coldest with probably 4-8 inches up on the mountain and 2-4 inches in the Village by Friday.

That starts up about a week of this cold and unsettled weather pattern. Another weak cold storm looks to drop in for Sunday and another around next Wed. and snow amounts look be even less with these storms. Throughout the period I would expect Northstar to continue adding to the totals with snow making.

Looking long-range there really isn't too much going on that will help to continue the pattern. It looks as if the ridge-trough pattern globally will shift East and the ridge will be back off of our coast to possibly bring back milder temps and drier weather around mid-month. Looking at some of the seasonal weather models they are suggesting the trough with its cold and snowy weather shift East for the second half of November. They also suggest an above average and drier than average December for the West Coast before a flip to cold and snowy in January.

That would line up will with analogs from history and with La Nina. Many times in La Nina Winter doesn't really start to get going until after Christmas. Of course those are super long-range models and so you take them with a grain of salt. My forecast has been for a later start to Winter this year despite a few shots of cold and snow here in the Fall. It may just be that.

Looking at today's La Nina update from NOAA the water off the coast looks to have stopped warming finally this week and maybe even cooled a little. In the ENSO region the La Nina regions 1+2 & 4 warmed with 1+2 neutral now, but the water in the middle in regions 3 & 3.4 cooling slightly to -1.1. Forecasts are still for strengthening of La Nina going into Winer but now the modles have backed off on the peak strength. I said I didn't buy into the strenght when we looked at the forecast a couple of weeks ago and now the models are pulling back. I am only expecting a moderate La Nina this Winter and my snowfall forecast of average to 5% above average are based on that.

Stay tuned for updates on the snow this week....BA

Until Next Time...

2011-03-30T14:02:00.000-07:00

My time here is up for the season and it has been quite an exciting one full of big storms. Northstar broke the all-time snowfall record with 636 inches to date. That is 182% of the seasonal average.

We will have periods of spring weather over the next few weeks with shots of cold and light snow from time to time. We may have to add a little more to the total before the mountain closes on the 24th.

My last post below goes through the numbers for our Mega March. Tune back in next fall as we begin another exciting season of tracking storms. BA

A Break as Spring Visits This Week...

2011-03-28T09:15:00.000-07:00

Northstar has had an amazing run of storms here over the past couple of weeks. The 10 day total is 124 inches, 15 day 168 inches, and March 194 inches. Northstar has now picked up an incredible 636 inches at the summit on the season.

It is only March 28th so we may not be done yet with snowfall on the mountain this season, but we are done for at least the next 5 days. The ridge is building off the West coast and it will be right over CA by Thursday & Friday. Temps will be chilly still today in the 30's on the mountain and breezy. As the ridge builds in temps will rise all week with 40's Tuesday/Wednesday and then 50's by Thursday and Friday. We will even be into the 60's in the Village.

The flow stays fairly progressive over the next couple of weeks, so the ridge moves to our East this weekend. That will allow a storm to move in to our North on Saturday and Sunday. It is looking pretty week right now with only light snowfall above 7000 ft. The biggest change will be windy and colder weather over the weekend with highs only in the 30's & 40's.

Long-range models can be pretty unreliable this time of year with the change in the seasons. Teleconnections may be more telling as they are a semi-constant in the chaos of the weather patterns. They favor a ridge along the West coast through next week and the models do show a ridge moving back in the beginning of the week. As we go into the second week of April the teleconnection forecasts show a pattern that would once again favor a retrogression of the ridge and a trough along the West coast.

Enjoy the nice weather during the weekdays these next two weeks as we see sunny skies and nice temps because it may not last. As we go towards mid-month I think we have a chance at a return to below average temps and some storms. Stay tuned......BA

Round 2, Could be Knockout....

2011-03-24T08:16:00.000-07:00

Northstar picked up another 12 inches in the past 24 hours bringing the total for storm #1 to 14 inches. That is pretty much on forecast for storm #1 and storm #2 is moving in today.

This storm is much stronger than storm #1 and is also windier and colder. That will combine for a nice big storm over the next 24 hours, possibly one of the bigger ones of the season and most likely the LAST big one of the season.

Heavy precip is banking up along the crest this morning and will spill over soon. It is going to be a mess this afternoon with some models showing up to an inch of liquid in a 6 hour period between 11 a.m. & 5 p.m. That's 2-4 inches an hour adding up to over a foot on the mountain in a short time period.

Another interesting thing this morning is that the temps dropped overnight into the teens above 8000 ft. and the 20's at the base and are holding steady as the storm approaches. That is showing how cold this storm is going to be with snow ratios of 20:1 up on the mountain and 15:1 in the Village. Models are all different in the details of the storm over the next two days with amounts of precip and when but it looks like at least 1.5 inches of liquid by tomorrow morning. So let's go 12-18 inches in the Village and 18-30 inches on the mountain.

Then there are more waves rotating in tomorrow that keep the snow going into Friday night. That drops another 6-12 inches in the Village and 12-18 inches on the mountain. By Saturday morning I'm expecting storm totals of 2-3 feet in the Village and 3-4 feet on the mountain.

Another storm moves in on Saturday but models are not in agreement on this one. Some want to bring in a nice little storm with 6-12 inches in the Village and 12-18 on the mountain, with clearing on Sunday. Others have the storm a little weaker on Saturday with another final storm moving through on Sunday. Either scenario we look to pick up several more inches over the weekend in the Village and a foot or more on the mountain to cap of an amazing 2 weeks of snowfall.

Powder hounds get on it this weekend because we have a flip next week in the pattern with a closing of the storm door as the ridge shifts to off our coast. Temps should be up into the 40's by mid-week on the mountain and 50's in the Village. It's time for some spring skiing on the best base we have seen to start Aplril in at least 28 years.

I also recommend getting out your camera and taking shots around Tahoe of the amazing snowpack as who knows it could be another 16-28 years before we have this much snow again if we go by the law of averages. This won't be the end of snow just the end of huge storm cycles, I'm pretty sure anyway. The pattern does look to stay fairly progressive long-range but the jetstream should be retreating North so we will get shots of colder weather and light-moderate snowfall with each quick hitting storm. That could start as early as next weekend. BA

Still Snowing.........

2011-03-23T07:53:00.000-07:00

Northstar snow reporters reporting 2 inches as of 6 a.m. but that was measured earlier than that and is low because there are around 6 inches here in front of my office at the base.

Front is pushing towards Sacramento this morning. As it pushes closer towards us today it will increase the snow intensity with the heaviest snow this afternoon as it pushes across the area. Snow showers will continue tonight into Thursday morning. No change in the snow totals by Thursday morning of 10-15 inches in the Village & 15-20 inches on the mountain.

Next storm ready to dive in tomorrow afternoon and this storm is stronger than this first one. The models may even be a little low on the snow totals. Snow will last through the day on Friday and some snow showers even into Friday night with the moist flow off the Pacific. By Saturday morning expecting another 1-2 feet in the Village and 2-3 feet on the mountain.

Next storm still looking good to move in on Saturday and last into Saturday night. There really won't be a break in the snow today through Saturday. By Sunday morning expecting up to another foot in the Village and 1-2 feet on the mountain. By Sunday our 4 day totals should be around 2-4 feet in the Village and 4-6 feet on the mountain.

We will have 9 day totals around 4-8 feet in the Village and 8-11 feet on the mountain. That is an amazing amount of snow in a a little over a week and Northstar will be closing at the end of April with a huge base.

A bit of a break next week with just some brush-by systems to our North. BA

Double Down.......

2011-03-22T10:48:00.000-07:00

Northstar picked up another 6 inches from the snow showers over the past 24 hours. That brings the 4 day storm total to 58 inches or just about 5 feet up top, and the 9 day total to over 8 feet. That is not the end as we have another 4 day storm cycle headed our way that will bring another 4-5 feet.

Snow showers fizzled out overnight as we lost the heating from the sun. Now we have a break today to enjoy the snow from round 1 as we await the next storm series that will begin tonight. Not much change from yesterday on the amounts through the weekend just the timing, so let's break it down.

The snow should begin falling by midnight tonight with some overrunning moisture ahead of the main storm. The heavy snow pushes in by Wednesday morning. The heavy snow will last all day on Wednesday with snow showers behind the front last through Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. The snowfall from this first storm should be around 10-15 inches in the Village and 15-20 inches on the mountain.

No break in the snow as the next strong storm moves in by Thursday afternoon bringing heavy snow into Friday morning. The snow showers behind the main storm will last into Friday night. The snowfall from this second storm should be around 12-18 inches in the Village and 18-30 inches on the mountain.

Third storm is now forecasted to arrive faster now by Saturday afternoon lasting into Sunday morning. This storm is weaker than the first 2 storms. The snowfall from this third storm should be around 5-10 inches in the Village and 10-15 inches on the mountain.

Storm totals by Sunday morning will be around 2-3.5 feet in the Village and 3.5-5.5 feet on the mountain. Basically we are getting a replay of the last 4 days over the next 4 days. Northstar should easily break 600 inches on the season by Sunday.

Next week we look to have a break with a brush-by storm to our North on Tuesday and then a ridge with nice weather through Friday. The next chance of a storm is the first weekend in April. The long-range models look typical of spring with a fast progressive pattern, cut-offs, and inconsistency. This should be our last big storm series this week and then quick hits of snow going forward in April. Stay tuned……….BA

Spring Temporarily on Hold.......

2011-03-21T08:45:00.000-07:00

Northstar picked up another 18 inches in the past 24 hours bringing the weekend storm total to over 4 feet up top and the 8 day total to 8 feet. Northstar is now at 564 inches on the season which is 161% of the annual average. We could possibly break 600 inches by this time next Monday which is crazy. This could be the biggest winter since 1982-83 and after that we have to go back to 1951-52.

Snow showers are fizzling out this morning in the basin and are confined mainly along the crest. The snow showers should continue through most of the day & into the evening with the moist flow off the Pacific. Only expecting a few inches of accumulation on the mountain today at best, may even see some sun.

Finally a short break on Tuesday before the next cold storm quickly dives in by Tuesday night. This storm lasts through Wednesday and the next stronger storms moves in on Thursday and lasts throug Friday. A break Saturday before another storm on Sunday into Monday. Over this period we will once again receive several feet of snow.

I have been crunching numbers this morning to try and break down individual storm totals this week. The 0z Euro and 6z GFS are pretty close in total liquid for each storm and both have a 5 day total of 3-4 inches of liquid. This last storm cycle I took an average temperature forecast of the period highs & lows and then came up with an average snow ratio. That seemed to work pretty well in forecasting the snow totals. Will do that again with this upcoming storm cycle.

On the mountain will go with an average of 15:1 ratios and around 10:1 in the Village. Models showing .75-1.25 inches of liquid with the Wednesday storm which is 6-12 inches in the Village and 12-20 inches on the mountain. For Thu-Fri 1-1.75 inches of liquid is 10-15 inches in the Village and 15-25 inches on the mountain. Sunday storm could bring .5-1.0 inches of liquid which would be another 5-10 inches in the Village and 10-15 inches on the mountain.

That would make a 5 day total of 2-3 feet in the Village and 3-5 feet on the mountain by Monday. Of note is that the 0z GFS and some previous model runs were stronger with the Thursday storm possibly bringing a foot more with that storm. Will have to watch the models today to see the trend. Either way we are going to add several more feet and it looks like enough snow to push Northstar over 600 inches.

The ridge in the Central Pacific, that is responsible for the trough along the West coast this week with cold and snow, will shift to the East Pacific off our coast next week. That will block storms to our North all week and give us a break to clean up from all the snow. Expecting beautiful weather next week with an unbelievable spring snowpack.

Long-Range models (which are not as accurate during season changes) are showing the possibility of the ridge re-emerging in the Central Pacific by the first weekend in April. Will have to see how amplified that ridge becomes because that will determine how deep the trough is along the West coast. Right now the potential is there for a return to cold storms. Stay tuned.....BA

Plenty More to Come........

2011-03-20T08:01:00.000-07:00

Northstar picked up 16 inches in the past 24 hours bringing the 2 day storm total to 34 inches, and the 7 day total to 6.5 feet on top. The onslaught of big snows continues as Northstar is now at 546 inches on the season and counting. We have enough snow coming today through next Sunday to possibly break 600 inches on the season.

NWS reported a pressure reading in the center of the storm around 2 a.m. of 981 mb. That is a category 1 hurricane pressure and one of the lowest recorded pressures recorded in the past several decades according to the NWS.

The center of the low is moving Northeast through Northern CA and is pushing a cold front towards the Sierra. That will increase the snowfall intensity this morning. Heavy snow will continue through the day and into tonight as the front is slow to move through. Once the cold front clears the snow becomes showery overnight and into Monday.

Total liquid on the models through Monday morning is still the same at 2-2.5 inches. So expecting an additional 1-2 feet in the Village and 2-3 feet on the mountain. Snow ratios above 7000 ft. will be around 15:1 so light snow but not as light as the last storm. Weekend storm total on the mountain should end up around 4-6 feet.

Cold unstable airmass and a continued moist flow off the Pacific will continue the snow showers into Monday night. We could pick up several more inches Monday and Monday night. Tuesday looks like the one short break before the next storm moves in as early as late Tuesday night.

The first wave in the next series of storms pushes in by Wednesday. This first wave doesn't look as strong with several inches likely. Next wave moves in on Thursday and is strong and lasts through Friday. This one could drop around 2-3 feet. The third wave moves in on Sunday and models are not in agreement on the strength.

This series of storms Wed-Sun is going to drop several more feet on top of the massive amounts we have already received in the past week. Looks like we could finally have a break after next weekend, but it may not last as we could see storms return the first week of April. Stay tuned......BA

Cold & Snow for a Week......

2011-03-18T06:08:00.000-07:00

Northstar picked up another 11 inches on top Wednesday morning with the last band of heavy snow that pushed through. That brought the storm total to 31 inches, the 7 day total to 46 inches, and the season total to 513 inches. Northstar only averages 350 inches a season so we are now at 147% of the annual snowfall average and winter is far from over.

We had a break Thursday and the next storm is ready to dive in this afternoon. This storm will be a much colder storm with a drier & fluffier snow. The main storm pushes into the Tahoe basin around noon and the heavy snow should last through tonight. With the cold air with this storm and moist flow behind the front I would expect snowshowers to last into Saturday. Total liquid by Saturday is 1-1.25 inches. That is less than the last storm but with colder temps and higher snow ratios we will do pretty good. Looking for 12-18 inches in the Village and 18-24 inches on the mountain by Saturday evening.

The main upper low responsible for spinning the storm in today will move down the coast slowly over the weekend. This will keep snow showers going off and on Saturday and Sunday with several more inches possible. Then the main low pushes in another wave of heavy snow Sunday afternoon into Monday and then the main low pushes through Monday night. This second part of the storm looks a little more impressive with liquid amounts of 2-2.25 inches. That would bring another 1-2 feet in the Village and 2-3 feet on the mountain by Tuesday. By Tuesday morning we should have 4 day totals of around 2-3 feet in the Village and 3-5 feet on the mountain.

If you thought that was the end you are wrong. The next storm dives in on Wednesday as another cold low dives down from the Gulf of Alaska. This storm is being shown by most models as slowing as it approaches and then slowly push inland Wednesday-Saturday next week. Looking at snow totals this far out is sketchy but models have enough liquid to bring around 3-4 feet on the mountain. We could have 6-9 feet by next Saturday with another storm ready to move in next Sunday.

With the ridge sitting out in the Central Pacific over the next 10 days we will continue to have a trough along the West coast with cold storms diving in and below average temps. Long-range models show a possible break the last few days of the month before more storms possible into the first week of April. Looking at teleconnections they look more favorable for storms as we go out 2 weeks. MJO is also circling around and strengthening so we could have one more blast of big storms in the beginning of April. Stay tuned......BA

Another Dump......

2011-03-16T07:58:00.000-07:00

Storm was colder than expected for once as snow levels dropped to lake level pretty early last night which increased the snow ratios up top. Northstar picked up 20 inches overnight and it's still coming down hard. That brings the total for the week up to 35 inches and the season to over 500 inches!

Looking at the models this morning they still want to drop up to an inch of liquid today between 5 a.m. & 5 p.m. That should add another 10-15 inches on top of the mountain. We should see the snow begin to clear out by this evening.

We are not done yet as the jetstream remains aimed at CA as we get into the heart of this snowy 2 week period. Another colder storm is set to push in on Friday with the heaviest snow Friday night into Saturday. There is another storm behind that coming in just to our South Sunday & Monday. Friday into Saturday we could see 1-2 feet of snow on the mountain. Several more inches possible as we get the Northern edge of the storm Sunday & Monday. Temps will only be in the 30's through the weekend in the Village and 20's up on the mountain.

Next week the models disagree a little on the the way the storms arrive. The Euro is consistent with the next storm pushing in for Tuesday & Wednesday, and another storm for Friday. The GFS has been playing with the idea that the trough digs so deep off the coast it forms a cut-off low that slowly pushes inland but not until Thursday. Either way the pattern remains active with more snow next week and below average temperatures. Stay tuned...........BA

The March Continues......

2011-03-15T16:06:00.000-07:00

Northstar picked up 4 inches in the past 24 hours from some light snow showers yesterday and last night in the moist flow off the Pacific. We should be close to 500 inches on the season by tomorrow night.

Next storm is moving in this afternoon with overrunning moisture already in the area ahead of the main storm. Snow levels are beginning to rise above 7000 ft. but will fall to lake level overnight. The jetstream is extending across the Pacific and into CA. This jet will push into the area this afternoon and through the day on Wednesday.

Models are pretty consistent on 1.5-2 inches of liquid over Tahoe by Wednesday night. That will translate to 12-18 inches on the mountain by Wednesday night. The snow level will be right around the base lodge to start and then will drop to the Village overnight.

Next storm is set to move in by Friday and this storm is much colder with snow levels starting at lake level. We could see snow showers as early as Thursday night with heavier snow pushing into the basin Friday night and Saturday. This storm looks to bring another 1-2 feet of snow but of the drier variety.

We will have to watch the track of another low diving in behind this one over the weekend. The low looks to track in to our South but enough precip could still make far enough North to bring us several more inches. Temps over the weekend will be cold with highs in the 20's & 30's.

The storms for Wednesday and Friday of next week are still on track as well. These are colder storms as well and could bring us some decent snows. BA

500 Inches in Sight......

2011-03-14T06:57:00.000-07:00

Northstar picked up 14 inches overnight as the jetstream was able to push the heavy snow further into Tahoe than expected overnight. Northstar is now just 18 inches shy of 500 inches which we could pick up with the next storm moving in tomorrow night.

You can see on satellite that the next storm is not that far behind this one just off the coast. Temps today and tomorrow will be in the 30's on mountain ahead of the storm. This storm should last longer with snow lasting into the day on Wednesday.

Models still vary a little with total liquid but more are on the side of 18-24 inches. It looks as if about half of the precip will fall after snow levels drop below lake level. That means we could see several inches in the Village, possibly up to 9 inches or more by Wednesday night. Behind the storm on Thursday temps will be much colder with highs in the 20's on the mountain with a chance of snow showers between storms.

Next storm is 24-36 hours behind this one with snow moving in again by Thursday night. This storm is much colder coming down the coast from the Gulf of Alaska. This storm could bring up to a foot of snow into Friday with plenty of cold air behind it for the weekend. Another storm dives down the coast on Sunday but looks like it will come in to our South.

Models are in fairly good agreement on a strong cold storm for the middle of next week. The colder than average pattern with a trough along the West coast and storms diving down from the North Pacific looks to continue going towards the end of the month. There is no sign of a ridge building off the coast to block storms, but the jetstream will weaken going into April. I will be traveling tomorrow so the storm update will be out in the afternoon. BA

Winter Wants to Hold Strong.......

2011-03-13T07:22:00.000-07:00

We have a series of storms on the way starting tonight, and we will transition back into a colder pattern by the end of this week that could last a while.

We start tonight with a fast moving storm that will bring 3-6 inches to the mountain. Things should clear out pretty quickly on Monday with sun and a fresh blanket of powder and highs near 40 degrees.

Next storm is about 36 hours behind this one and ready to move in Tuesday night. This storm is stronger and will bring a decent snowfall of around 12-18 inches on the mountain and 6 or more inches in the Village. This storm will last into the day on Wednesday.

The storms over the past couple of weeks have been a little mild. This is due to the location of the ridge up near Alaska leaving the Pacific wide open for storms to come across the middle and pick up warm moisture before hitting the Pacific NW. We have been on the South side (warm side) of the storms where a weak cold front gets dragged through as the storms head East. This storm pattern will change on Thursday.

A ridge will begin to build out around 150w and will expand Northward. This will begin to push the storms up towards Alaska and then dows the West coast. The trough along the West coast will dig deeper and that will bring a return of colder weather by this weekend and into the following week. That means a return to highs in the 30's even down to lake level.

The first cold storm is arriving on Friday and could move slowly inland over the weekend. Right now next weekend looks like a cold and snowy weekend with some models showing several inches in a snow showery pattern, and others showing several waves of moisture that could bring a couple of feet.

The colder pattern looks to continue into week 2 and beyond as the ridge stays out in the Western Pacific. We should continue to see storms dropping down the West coast into CA. The difference in March is that a cold pattern is highs in the 30's & 40's with a stronger sun as compared to the 20's & 30's with a weaker sun in previous months. So when it's not snowing it will still feel pretty nice outside. The cooler temps will aid in keeping the snowpack in place into April. BA

Snowy Week Ahead......

2011-03-12T07:48:00.000-08:00

Series of storms will bring lots of fun weather this week starting Sunday night. We will see a storm every other day into next weekend.

As of Saturday morning not much change in the snowfall forecast. Dusting possible on the mountains this afternoon with a quick shot of moisture as a system passes to our North. Next storm moves in tomorrow night into Monday with 3-6 inches on the mountain Sunday night through Monday possibly more if the GFS is right and 2-4 in the Village.

Euro is further North than the GFS with the Tuesday night into Wednesday storm. Euro says another 3-6 inches and the GFS says a foot or more, let's go with the middle of 6-9 inches for now. We may need to go higher because the GFS has been consistent with over a foot of snow.

Next storm is off the coast by Thursday night into Friday. This is where the models diverge a little with what happens. The one thing they agree on is that this will be the coldest storm as we go into a colder pattern towards the end of the week. The GFS has this storm as a cut-off that spins off the coast and ejects inland slowly over the weekend bringing what could be a lot of snow. The Euro says the storm blows right in on Friday and then another couple of waves follow over the weekend.

The reason I talk about the Euro and GFS models the most is that I find them to be the best long-range models. I will use several other models in the short term especially to compare snowfall amounts of an approaching storm.

The pattern remains cold and stormy into week 2 as the ridge builds in the North Pacific out near 150w which is our pattern for colder storms that drop down the West coast. There is some suggestion that the ridge pushes further East towards the end of the month. One scenario could be the jetstream comes underneath if we still have some energy left or that could be the end of the storm train and March goes out like a lamb.

To summarize no matter which model solution is right we should see at least several feet in total on the mountain over the next 10 days to add to our great season. Stay tuned.....BA

Dustings.....

2011-03-10T07:39:00.000-08:00

Not much change today in the forecast. The storm moving in this afternoon will bring an inch or two to the mountain.

The weekend looks fair with the Saturday storm staying well to our North and temps in the 40's.

We continue in a zonal flow to start next week with 2 more storms on the way for Monday and Wednesday. The models disagree on the strength of both storms. The GFS says 3-6 inches with both storms and the Euro is weaker with the Monday storm but still has the Wednesday storm as a pretty big storm.

If the Euro is correct we could have a 2 day storm with a strong cold front that brings 2-3 feet of snow. We will have to watch the Wednesday storm closely as our next chance of a bigger storm.

It still appears the ridge could amplify in the Central Pacific the second half of next week digging the trough deeper off the West Coast. That would bring colder air to our area and colder storms starting next weekend. There is a slow moving, possible cut-off, storm for next weekend that could bring accumulating snow to all elevations.

This pattern could continue into the last week of the month with below average temps and storms every few days. We could still have a few big storms left to go this month. No sign of the storm door closing yet. BA

Snows Not Done Yet.......

2011-03-09T07:09:00.000-08:00

Northstar picked up a total of 14 inches from the last storm as of Monday bringing the season total to a whopping 466 inches which is already 133% of the annual snowfall average.

Nice weather again today ahead of the next storm that will hit the Pacific NW. The parade of storms will continue to impact the Pacific NW over the next couple of weeks as low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska spins them in on its South side. The big question for Tahoe over the next couple of weeks is how far South will the storms track.

As long as the pattern remains active odds are we get at least some snow even if we have to take it in inches. The next storm moves through tomorrow night and light snow may make its way far enough South to bring us a couple of inches on the mountain.

Nice weather between each of these storms with nice weather again Friday and Saturday ahead of the next storm Saturday night. This storm looks to stay north of us so maybe some clouds and a dusting on the mountain at most. Then nice weather again on Sunday.

The next storm arrives on Monday and this storm looks as if it could dip a little further South. This would bring us some snow more in the 3-6 inch range. There is another storm behind that for next Wednesday. This storm also looks as if it will come further South but the models vary greatly on the strength. The GFS says it's another 3-6 inch storm but the Euro has it picking up even more moisture and slowing to bring us a couple of feet. Either way the storms next week look to bring several inches instead of a couple inches like the storms this week.

The storms over the next week are coming across the Pacific in a zonal fashion and so they will not be that cold, but not that warm either. For some good cold strong storms we need the flat ridge to amplify and setup further West in the Pacific. This may begin to happen towards the end of next week. That would allow the storms next Friday and into the weekend to go North, grab cold air, and then drop down the coast and pick up some decent moisture off the Pacific before hitting CA.

The pattern from day 10 and beyond into the final week of March may feature some colder and stronger storms. Long range models support this currently but remember the accuracy of the long-range models with the change in the seasons can be not as good. For now we will expect the stormy pattern to continue into the end of the month. I will be the first to let you know if that changes....BA

7 More Weeks of Winter.....

2011-03-07T07:32:00.000-08:00

Northstar picked up anther 10 inches in the past 24 hours bringing the storm total to 13 inches so far. That is 1 inch shy of the lower end of my forecast as drier air behind the cold front cut off the snow much faster than expected. Northstar now has 465 inches on the season which is 133% of the seasonal snowfall average. My forecast was for 125% of average this season but I don't mind being wrong that way. Maybe we can hit 500 inches?

A snowband has formed this morning to the North of I-80 and is moving South. Will have to watch the radar this morning as the core of the low moves over the area as more snow showers and snow bands may form. Other than that it is cold today with highs in the 20's on the mountain and around freezing in the Village. Tue-Thu is dry with highs in the 40's.

The pattern is quite progressive over the long-range with the teleconnections mostly neutral. Starting this Thursday going out 10+ days there is a storm about every other day or so. We will get the Southern egde of a storm Thursday night and Saturday night with light snow possible. The bigger affect will most likely be a quick shot of colder air.

Then the ridge may retrograding a little further West in the Pacific allowing a storm to dig a little further South on Monday the 14th and another on Wednesday. Those would be a nice shot of cold snow to freshen things up. The best chance at another bigger shot of snow still looks to be Friday the 18th as the ridge may retrograde a bit further West as a strong storm comes across the Pacific and digs South picking up lots of moisture before it hits the West coast.

As we get into the middle of March we have to start taking the long-range models with a grain of salt. They are much less accurate with the change in the pattern going into Spring. With that in mind they are hinting at continued storminess with another storm possible Monday the 21st. Teleconnections are not as favorable for big West coast storms, but they are also not favorable for ridging yet either. They are in a pattern of progressive zonal flow for now, so will have to keep an eye on the forecasts. Stay tuned......BA

Part I.....

2011-03-06T08:26:00.001-08:00

Northstar picked up 3 inches overnight as this storm is just getting started and will last through Monday.

We should pick up another 3-6 inches today on the mountain before we have a lull in the action this evening. Part 2 of the storm moves in overnight as the cold front approaches. The heaviest should snow should occur during the morning hours on Monday and snow showers should last most of the day. Expected additional snow totals by Monday night of 4-8 inches in the Village and 8-12 inches on the mountain. Storm totals of 14-20 inches on the mountain.

A ridge will build in behind the storm keeping us dry and warmer Tues-Thurs with temps up into the 40's by Wednesday. As that ridge slides East it will be replaced by a flatter ridge out in the Pacific around 140w. Since the ridge is not quite far enough West it will keep the next couple of storms just to our North and we are on the Southern edge. That will bring a shot of colder air and a chance of light snow Thursday night and Saturday night.

The ridge may then retrograde back a little further West allowing a storm to dig and bring us a bigger storm on Monday the 14th. There is another storm heading our way around the 18th but the models are trying to build a ridge in the East Pacific.

Looking at the teleconnections they are not looking as favorable after mid-month. The PNA has already gone positive over the past few days which may be why the ridge is so flat this week. The forecast is for the PNA to stay slightly positive and the AO & NAO to trend towards negative. That could mean the end of our storm train after mid-month. BA

Unsettled Weekend......

2011-03-04T11:49:00.000-08:00

Looking at this morning's models they continue to bring in less liquid with the storm this weekend. There is a long subtropical tap stretching all the way back to Hawaii that will be pushed into Northern CA by the low spinning in the Gulf of Alaska tonight. By the time the moisture is pushed into Tahoe Saturday afternoon the subtropical warm tap will be cut-off and the storm will bring us light amounts of snow on the mountain.

I would expect light snowfall above the base lodge Saturday afternoon through Sunday with around 3-6 inches of snow over that entire period. Snow levels will come down Saturday night and Sunday to just below the base lodge.

Then Sunday night the cold front approaches and pushes through by Monday morning. This will drop snow levels below lake level and bring the heaviest precip of the storm. Currently it looks as if we could see around 3-6 inches in the Village and 6-12 inches on the mountain. This will be some colder snow on top of the wetter stuff from the weekend very similar to what we just had with the last storm.

Starting Tuesday there is a ridge off the coast blocking storms and bringing nice weather for a few days. Then that ridge pushes East as another ridge sets up around 140w in the Central Pacific by the end of next week. This will open back up the storm door to some colder storms coming down the East side of the ridge. The location of the ridge at 140w would mean we will get a series of cold but smaller storms.

There are going to be quite a few storms coming across the Pacific from next weekend and beyond so the pattern of a storm every other or every couple of days looks to continue from the 11th through the 20th. Around the 16th the ridge may retrograde further west towards 150-160w allowing the storms to dig and pick up more moisture. The best chance at another big storm looks to be if/when this happens, possibly around the 19th. Now that we are in March with a stronger sun it should be nice between each storm and then a shot of cold and snow with each. Stay tuned....BA

25 Year Snowfall Record........

2011-03-03T08:14:00.000-08:00

Northstar picked up another 13 inches on top in the past 24 hours bringing the storm total to 15 inches and breaking the biggest seasonal snowfall total in the past 25 years set in 04/05. Northstar is now at 451 inches on the season beating out the 438 inches back in 04/05. Sun and clouds today with maybe a few more snow showers maybe adding up to an inch or two more throughout the day.

Temps warm nicely on Friday and Saturday into the 30's & 40's ahead of the next storm arriving Saturday night. The models are looking a little more positive with the details of the storm for Sunday and Monday. They are showing snow levels slightly lower so I feel a little more confident they may not go much above the base lodge. They also show the precip being fairly light during the warm part of the storm on Sunday with the heaviest precip to our North.

Then a cold front approaches on Sunday night and drops the snow levels below lake level. Models are showing the heaviest precip coming with the cold front so we could get decent snow even at lake level Sunday night into Monday. Models are showing only .25-.5 inches of liquid ahead of the cold front, so around 3-6 inches on top. Then an inch or more of liquid with the cold front and with the snow showers behind the front on Monday. That would mean we could get 6-12 inches in the Village and a storm total of up to 2 feet on top.

A break Tuesday-Thursday next week as the ridge moves into the Central Pacific. Models this morning are putting it a little further East around 140-150w instead of 150-160w. That would just prevent the storms from digging as much off the coast and not be quite as strong. It looks like back to back cold storms Friday & Sunday the 11th & 13th. Depending on how far the ridge allows them to dig off the coast will determine how much snow but these are cold storms with snow levels below lake level.

Looks like another break around mid-month before another storm approaches the coast around the 19th. The ridge in the Pacific may begin to amplify and expand North the third week of March causing this storm to be a cut-off. If not then subsequent storms may be as we get into cut-off low season heading into spring. I am expecting the storms to begin to lose their mojo towards the end of the month as the jetstream weakens an moves further North for the spring. We have at least 3-4 more potentially good storms before then.

I will post the snowpack, water numbers, and a February recap sometime over the next few days. BA

Adding On Slowly.....

2011-03-02T07:58:00.000-08:00

First wave of the storm overnight fell apart as it cleared the crest. Northstar picked up 2 inches of snow tying the 25 year snowfall record set in 04/05 of 438 inches on top. At the base about an inch of snow fell overnight & just a coating in the Village.

There is a cold front approaching from the West as well as some heavier bands of snow. Then behind the cold front this afternoon convective snow showers continue into tonight. Expecting another inch or two at the base today as the temps are just above freezing. On the mountain we should pick up another 3-6 inches during the day today.

There are a couple more waves of moisture that will rotate in tonight and through the day on Thursday. Looking for 3-5 inches in the Village tonight & another 2-4 inches tomorrow for a storm total of 5-9+ inches. On the mountain we could see 3-6 inches tonight and 3-6 tomorrow bringing to storm totals up to 12-20 inches by Thursday night.

We get a break on Friday & Saturday before the next storm moves in on Saturday night. This storm is tapping subtropical moisture from all the way down near Hawaii. This will make this storm warmer than the current storm with higher snow levels. I am expecting snow levels to be right around the base lodge or just above through Sunday until a cold front moves through Sunday night. 12-18 inches of thick snow is the early call right now. Snow showers could continue through Monday as another wave rotates through behind the storm. This could bring a few more inches.

We get another break the middle of next week as the pattern undergoes a shift in the Pacific. The ridge has been over the Bering Sea allowing storms to move straight across the Pacific this week and pick up warm subtropical moisture. Next week the ridge is going to move South back to around 150-160w & 40n in the North Pacific. This is where it was the past 2 weeks, and is the ideal location for colder storms. The storms starting the end of next week and going through mid-March will go up and over the ridge and down the West coast as colder storms that will bring accumulating snows to all elevations. The storm door still looks to remain open for at least the next few weeks. BA

Active.........

2011-02-28T07:49:00.000-08:00

What a great weekend of soft powder as Northstar has now picked up over 36 feet of snow so far this season. Not much of a break here for a few days before our next storm moves in on Wednesday. This storm is much warmer and is working with less liquid than the last few storms so it will basically act to compress the base and freshen up the slopes with snow of a thicker variety.

Temps today will be in the 30's and then tomorrow we break into the 40's with the warm flow out ahead of the storm. A cold low pressure spinning in the Northeast Pacific is going to pull a warmer storm coming across the Pacific up its East side. That will push a stream of moisture through our area with a cold front on the backside.

Snow levels may come up to right around lake level when the precip starts late Tuesday night, but will then fall during the day on Wednesday. Light snowfall could continue into Thursday with a moist flow behind the main storm. Right now liquid amounts are enough to bring around 6-12 inches in the Village and 12-18 inches on the mountain.

Things begin to clear out by Friday and we have another little break until the next storm arrives on Sunday. This storm looks to bring similar amounts of precip as the storm this week. Then it looks like another break next Tue-Thu before the next storm is at our doorstep by Friday.

By the end of next week it looks as if the ridge may shift South from the Bering Sea to around 160w in the Central Pacific. This would bring the return of colder storms dropping down the East side of the ridge from around the 10th going towards mid-month. It definitely looks like an active period for at least the next few weeks. BA

Biggest Snowfall in Over 25 Years?

2011-02-26T09:29:00.000-08:00

Northstar Picked up another 18 inches in the past 24 hours bringing the 2 day storm total to 4 feet. Northstar is now at 125% of the annual snowfall average and it's only February 26th! Records go back to 1985 and the biggest snowfall year at Northstar in the past 25 years was 04/05 season with 438 inches. We are at 436 right now!

Snow showers died out a little earlier than expected last night as the precip quickly pushed South of us. Temps dropped all night into this morning and it is around 0 degrees everywhere this morning. Even with the sun temps today may not get out of the single digits at the summits and the teens on the rest of the mountains.

Temps rebound tomorrow and Monday into the 20's & 30's as a brief ridge moves in and we get a Southwesterly flow ahead of the next storm approaching the coast. We could see the clouds as early as Monday as moisture streams in to our North, but the main storm doesn't arrive until Wednesday. Current models don't show this first storm getting as much moisture from the Pacific as the following storms. Right now it looks like a 1-2 foot snowfall Wednesday into Thursday. Snow levels may start at or just above lake level before falling.

The pattern we will be in for the next two weeks is one where the polar jetstream and subtropical jetstream merge on CA. As the ridge sits in the Bering Sea cold lows will form in the Gulf of Alaska and Northeast Pacific, while warmer lows picking up subtropical moisture come across the Pacific from the West. The two will combine starting with this first storm on Wednesday. Then subsequent storms starting next weekend into the following week. Those storms look to pick up much more moistur and we could be looking at several feet with each one starting around next Sunday.

After today the pattern of strong cold and powdery storms will end and we will move into more of a normal temp and snowfall pattern with heavier snows. The pattern looks to stay active going towards mid-March. Stay tuned......BA

Snow, Snow, Snow........

2011-02-25T07:49:00.000-08:00

Northstar picked up 20 inches in the past 24 hours and the heaviest part of the storm is still to come today. Northstar will have more snow as of today than they did all of last season.

Temps have actually risen about 5 degrees in the early morning hours as some warm air gets drawn up ahead of the cold front. That has decreased snow ratios briefly from about 25:1 to 20:1 on the mountain. As the cold front moves through today we will see the heaviest snow of the storm, and the temps will drop and snow ratios will increase again. Models show that a good amount of the precip is still to fall today with 1.25-1.5 inches of liquid even though we already have a foot in the Villge and almost 2 feet on the mountain. Expect another 1-2 feet in the Village and 2-3 feet on the mountain by Saturday morning.

Models are in pretty good agreement that we start to clear out and dry out Saturday morning with just some lingering snow showers. Temps will be cold with highs maybe not getting out of the single digits on the summit and the teens in the Village. Sunday and Monday we warm up pretty quickly back into the 20's & 30's with brief ridging and a Southerly flow ahead of the next big dump next week.

Another low will drop down the Pacific NW coast next week bringing the cold Northern branch of the jetstream with it. The ridge in the Central Pacific will retrograde North and West allowing the Southern branch of the jetstream to come across the Pacific and merge with the Northern branch over CA by Wednesday. This will be the setup for more heavy snow measured in feet Wednesday through Friday next week.

The La Nina is weakening as we go towards spring and that may be allowing the Southern branch of the jetstream to finally get some energy. The MJO is also forecasted to strengthen over the Western Pacific over the next 2 weeks. I know you may not believe me after it did nothing in January, but now the La Nina is weaker and won't limit the convection as much. Teleconnections are ideal for storms to continue into the Second week of March and maybe beyond. More on that after this storm.....BA

Snow Is Falling......

2011-02-24T10:53:00.000-08:00

The main low is spinning off the coast of Seattle this morning with lots of cold air depicted by the popcorn shaped clouds. When you see that it means there is really cold air over the ocean picking up moisture off the relatively warmer water. On the South side of the circulation a moisture streak is being pulled into Northern CA from a stationary low and area of moisture in the Central Pacific. This is adding moisture to the air that blowing in from the West this morning and is causing light snow showers on the mountain as the air is lifted.

This kind of snow will stay light through this morning bringing a couple of inches until the the moisture streak moves further South this afternoon and the snowfall becomes heavier. By tonight the cold moist flow off the Pacific will be in full force with heavy snow and then even heavier snow tomorrow as the cold front moves through. The heavy snow will last through the day on Friday before lightening Friday night as the storm shifts South. With the very cold air in place there could still be significant accumulation Friday night. Then on Saturday snow showers in the morning may give way to the sun poking through by afternoon, very similar to last Saturday.

Looking at the models this morning the GFS has caught up now with the other models with an average of 1.5-1.75 inches of total liquid by Saturyday. We will have snow ratios averaging 20:1 in the Village into Saturday and 25:1 or more above on the mountain especially on top at 8,600 ft.

I will break it down for you into 12 hour periods again like i like to do. In the Village: 3-6 today, 9-12 tonight, 9-12 tomorrow, 3-6 tomorrow night = 2-3 feet by Saturday. On the Mountain: 4-8 today, 14-18 tonight, 14-18 tomorrow, 4-8 tomorrow night = 3-4+ feet by Saturday. We will have to wait until Sunday morning for the final totals as the snowshowers linger into Saturday.

Storm train still lined up next week to bring us more storms starting Wednesday. More on that after we get through this storm. Was I too low in October on my prediction of 125% of average snowfall for Tahoe this season? BA

It's All Bonus Now....

2011-02-23T08:59:00.000-08:00

Not much change in the short-term forecast with the storm moving in tomorrow afternoon/evening. Snow totals haven't really changed since yesterday's post. Only change is to possibly speed up the storm slightly and have it clearing out by Saturday morning. Heaviest snow should fall Thursday night into Friday morning. Now that Norhtstar is above average for snowfall this is all bonus snow going forward.

The cold with this storm will be as big of a story as the snowfall. Highs in the teens on the mountains Friday and Saturday, and they may not get out of the single digits above 8000 ft. at the summits of most resorts. One of the few times in Tahoe when you may actually want to wear one of those neoprene face masks. You know there will still be people with only sweatshirts on, but they may lose some skin on Saturday.

With an airmass this cold we are going to get some decent snow totals although we are only working with 1-2 inches of liquid. With snow ratios of 20-30:1 throughout the storm we will have snowfall totals of 1.5-2.5 feet in the Village, and 2.5-3.5 feet on the mountain. The GFS this morning only had 1-1.25 inches of liquid but the NAM had 2-2.25 inches. That is a big difference so I will watch the models closely today to try and figure out if we will get the high or low end of the forecast.

By Sunday & Monday the sun is shining and temps begin to rebound quickly back into the 20's & 30's as we get a Southwest flow and a weak ridge ahead of the next storm moving across the Pacific. The pattern next week will be differen't than what we have seen the past 2 weeks. The ridge wants to setup near the Aleutians or maybe even further North over the Bering Sea. So not only will there be storms coming down the coast from the North, but also from across the Pacific as they can easily pass under the new position of the ridge.

How the storms coming from the two directions interact is the question. The storms coming from West to East across the Pacific will be able to tap into subtropical moisture so they will be strong and much warmer than the storms we have seen. The storms coming down from the North will be cold. It may be the perfect combination as the cold lows from the North can push enough cold into the storms from the West to keep snow levels just at or below lake level.

The models show a storm next week for Tuesday/Wednesday, Thursday/Friday, and another Sunday/Monday the 6th & 7th of March. The only thing that could happen is that the lows pump a ridge up along the West coast far enough to keep the heaviest snow to our North, but that is not shown in the models. I am still not seeing anything long-term that would stop this pattern. The next two weeks should be quite stormy with normal Sierra style snow. Stay tuned......BA

If You Thought the Snow Last Week Was Good.......

2011-02-22T12:37:00.000-08:00

Two more days of sun and highs in the 20's today and tomorrow before the clouds increase on Thursday as the next storm tracks down the West coast. With the ridge in the North Pacific driving air down from the North this storm will bring some of the coldest air of the season, especially during a snowstorm. This storm reminds me of the Christmas Eve storm in 2008 where we don't have a lot of moisture to work with, but with extremely high snow:water ratios we will see significant snowfall.

The snow should begin Thursday night and last through Friday night bringing 1-2 inches of liquid. To narrow it a little more let's go with 1.25-1.75 inches of liquid. Temps will be in teens Thursday night & even Friday above 7000 ft., and then the single digits Friday night. Snow ratios will be between 15:1 & 30:1 throughout the storm, but let's take an average of 20:1 at lake level and 25:1 above 7000 ft. Multiply that by the liquid and we should see snow totals of 1.5-3 feet in the Village, with 2.5-4 feet on the mountain. If you thought the snow quality was amazing last week wait until this Friday & Saturday.

There are a couple of discrepencies in the models on how fast the storm moves out on Saturday & how much moisture it can pull from moisture coming under the ridge. Some models have us clearing out by morning and other have the snow lasting through the day on Saturday. The fastest models with a limited moisture tap put us at the lower end of the forecasted snowfall and the slowest models with the biggest moisture tap could add another 6-12 inches to the forecasted totals. Will have to watch this closely over the next day or two.

Looking at next week the forecast over the past two weeks of the ridge setting up further West again near the Aleutian Islands is being shown by the models. Another low will work its way down the coast the beginning of next week while a storm comes under the ridge in the North Pacific. It looks as if the low will pull the storm into the West coast by Tuesday or Wednesday. This storm would be quite strong with a subtropical tap and cold air filtering in from the low to the North. We will be talking normal snow ratios of 10-12:1 but still see significant snow due to the amount of liquid.

This pattern looks as if it could continue with a ridge near the Aleutians, lows coming down its East side from the North Pacific down the West Coast, and moisture coming underneath the ridge and into the West Coast. It could be the perfect pattern for big snowstorms next week and the week after. Things can always change in the long-range, but looking at the teleconnections there is nothing yet to suggest the storm door closing. We may just have to wait for the jetstream to weaken as we go into spring. I told you the 10 feet last week was just the beginning. BA

100 Inches......

2011-02-21T10:58:00.000-08:00

Northstar picked up another inch last night bringing the 7 day total to 100 inches, and the season total to 398 inches. Northstar is now at 114% of the annual snowfall average.

We may see some light snow showers today and tonight as the the storm off the coast grazes us. You can see the storm clearly on the satellite as it rotates down the coast and throws clouds over Tahoe. Temps will stay cold with highs in the 20's on the mountain through Wednesday.

Then a cold and slowing moving low will move down the coast and rotate in moisture off of the Pacific starting sometime on Thursday. This should continue into Saturday as the low sits almost stationary off the Pacific NW coast. The models are back and forth on whether or not the low can pull in moisture from a storm coming under the ridge which is sitting around 150w in the North Pacific. Without that happening we are looking at 20:1 snow ratios and 1-2 inches of liquid, so that should be around 2-3 feet of snow. Depending on whether the low can tap that additional moisture and how much, we could be talking more snow.

One thing that tends to happen with storms in this kind of pattern is that the snow amounts go up as the storm gets closer like this past storm. Areas of convection wrap into the coast that are not picked up by the models this far out. We have to keep an eye on this storm over the next couple of days.

The trend for next week over the past several days was that the ridge stays around 150w in the North Pacific and more lows come down the coast bringing more snow starting as early as next Monday. This morning the last 2 runs of the GFS model have a different scenario. It suggests that the ridge moves up over Alaska with a large low moving into the Gulf of Alaska forming sort of a Rex Block. This would delay the onset of the snow next week till later in the week as the pattern develops.

If this pattern were to develop it would mean storms would be rotated into the West Coast by the low but they would be pulling in moisture from across the Pacific. This is the type of pattern that brings in warmer storms with more liquid, although still cold enough to snow on the mountains. A similar pattern brought us the big snows in December.

Either way the pattern looks to remain active over the next few weeks with a strong -PNA and no blocking downstream to jam up the pattern. We should see no more than 3-4 days between storms into the 2nd week of March. The only thing with a pattern of a low in the Gulf of Alaska the exact location can make a difference of whether the Pacific NW or CA gets the brunt of the storms. Stay tuned.......BA

April in February........

2011-02-19T06:42:00.000-08:00

Northstar picked up another 16 inches in the past 24 hours bringing the storm total to 8 feet 2 inches. We are now only 4 inches shy of 400 inches. We hit 400 inches last year in the big snow year, but not until April 5th!

Snow will become showery today with only a few more inches expected as the main low rotates inland. Then tomorrow through Tuesday we should see the sun with cold temps with highs in the 20's.

A slow moving cold low moves down the coast starting the middle of the week. This will bring a return of snow starting some time between Wednesday and Thursday, and lasting into the weekend. Current models are throwing out liquid amounts of 2-3 inches and snow ratios on the mountains will be 20:1. It's too early to make an accurate prediction, but it looks as if we will pick up somewhere in the 2-5 foot range over the 2-4 day period if the storm stays on the current projected track. Models tend to increase amounts as these kinds of storms get closer as we learned with this storm.

The pattern stays favorable for some stronger storms going into the first week of March as the PNA stays negative and the ridge is out at 160w. BA

Above Average.......

2011-02-18T08:25:00.000-08:00

Northstar picked up another 37 inches in the past 24 hours making that the biggest 24 hour snowfall this season. That brings the 3 day storm total to 2 inches shy of 7 feet on top. It also brings the season to date snowfall to 380 inches breaking the seasonal average of 350 inches. The Village has picked up around 4 feet so far.

Front did just as expected and stalled over Tahoe last night. The band of moisture is weakening this morning so expect the snow to lighten up. Then another wave will rotate inland over Central CA as the low comes down the coast and pulls it Northward this evening over Tahoe. That should bring one more round of heavier snow tonight. Looking for 3-6 inches in the Village today with 4-8 inches on the mountain. Then another 6-9 inches in the Village tonight and 9-12 inches on the mountain.

Snow showers will continue Saturday morning before tapering off in the afternoon. Only expecting a few more inches of accumulation on Saturday. Storm totals for the week on the mountain should be 6-9 feet by the time we clear out tomorrow. That would be enough snow to last us for a while, but there is plenty more on the way.

We should see things dry out for Sunday-Tuesday as the next storm dives down off the coast and misses us. Then on Wednesday the next cold low pressure makes its way down the coast. The trend is over water right now, so the storm should pick up moisture off the ocean and spin in several waves of moisture through Friday. The temps will be really cold so the snow ratios will be high again and we should be measuring in feet.

Then the ridge moves back about 10 degrees in the Pacific next weekend allowing the storms to pick up more moisture. We may see storms almost continuously through the first week of March. I don't see anything in the long range over the next 2 weeks that points to anything other than cold and snow. La Nina is getting her revenge in a big way. BA

Above Average.......

2011-02-17T07:38:00.000-08:00

Northstar picked up another 32 inches in the last 24 hours bringing the storm total to 45 inches. It also brings the season total to 343, just 7 inches shy of the seasonal snowfall average. We should surpass that today and be above average on the season. We are almost halfway through the 5 day storm and there is a lot more snow coming!

We have an interesting storm pattern developing for today through Saturday. First off we will see the heavy snow move in a little earlier than expected as it arrives this morning with the low strengthening off the coast. The storm will drag another front through Tahoe today and then that front is going to stall tonight over the area. Tomorrow the front will tilt perpendicular as energy pushes into Southern CA so the flow will be more from the South than the West. Then as the low rotates East into Nevada tomorrow night and Saturday the moisture flow will wrap around from the East.

I will break down the projected snow totals pretty simple since we should pick up around .5-.75 inches of liquid every 12-18 hours. In the Village 6-9 inches today, 6-9 tonight, 6-9 Friday, & 6-9 Friday night into Saturday will add up to another 2-3 feet by Saturday. On the mountain 9-15 inches today, 9-15 tonight, 9-15 Friday, & 9-15 Friday night into Saturday will add up to another 3-5 feet by Saturday. 5 day storm totals by the time we clear out on Sunday should be in the 4-5 foot range in the Village and 6-9 foot range on the mountain.

Things clear out on Sunday and the next storm for Monday and Tuesday is still trending far enough off the coast that we only see clouds and maybe a few flakes. Another inside slider storm for Wednesday and Thursday will bring cold and maybe some light snow showers. Next week looks to be more cold than snowy with mostly off and on snow showers throughout the week.

The following weekend the ridge, that is pushed a little East in the Pacific next week by a strong low, looks like it will redevelop back out around 160w South of the Aleutians. That would bring the return of stronger storms with more moisture and over water trajectory. Stay tuned.......BA

Barely Getting Started......

2011-02-16T07:24:00.000-08:00

Northstar picked up 13 inches as of 5 a.m. this morning and you can add several more inches to that by the time we open. The heaviest snow will fall this morning, but it will snow into the weekend with several more feet still on tap.

The cold front is pushing through this morning which will trigger the heavy snowfall and increasing snow ratios. By this evening I am expecting that the snow totals are double what we woke up to this morning. Tonight the snow showers will become much lighter, but with 20-30:1 snow ratios whatever falls will pile up quickly. Snow projections from yesterday still look to be on track by tomorrow morning with 1.5-2.5 feet in the Village and 2-3 feet on the mountain.

Tomorrow we start with light snow showers during the day and then another wave of heavier snow rotates in tomorrow night. The steadier snow should last into the day on Friday. Looking for another 3-6 inches during the day tomorrow in the Village and 4-8 inches on the mountain. Then we should pick up another 12-18 inches in the Village and 1-2 feet on the mountain Thursday night and Friday.

For Saturday and Sunday another wave of moisture rotates in but it looks like the bulk of the moisture will stay to our South so we will only see light snow showers. We could pick up a few to several more inches depening on the exact track. By Sunday morning I am expecting 5 day storm totals of 3-4 feet in the Village and 4-6 feet on the mountain.

The temps stay cold with highs in the 20's right through the weekend and into next week as this pattern of cold and storms dropping from the North continues. After a break on Sunday and President's Day, the trend is to bring another cold storm down the coast. The past few model runs have the storm coming down the coast a little further West meaning the heaviest precip stays just to our West. That could easily change and if the storm tracks closer to the coast that could mean a lot more snow. For right now it looks like at least several inches of snow Tuesday and Wednesday.

The ridge moves back a little in the North Pacific to around 160w where it is the beginning of this week. That should allow the storms to pick up a bit more moisture off the Pacific. As of right now it appears that we may see a similar pattern the last weekend of the month and into the first week of March as we are seeing this week.

So we still have quite a bit of winter to deal with the next few weeks. I still do not see anything long-term that would close the storm door. Isn't this fun? BA